ADMIN NOTE: I’m on the West Coast so I will be on Pacific time until early next week.  The Early Warning will be published at 8am Pacific through Monday.

Here’s what you need to know for Wednesday morning.

President Trump is set to unveil his plan for tax cuts later today in Missouri.  Stephen Miller, a staunch nationalist (one of the few remaining in the administration) reportedly wrote the president’s speech.  We can likely expect the president’s remarks today to resonate with his base, and infuriate the media (that is, if the speech is not overshadowed by Harvey making another landfall in Louisiana).

As a key date for the U.S. debt ceiling approaches, Fitch Ratings is warning lawmakers that a “timely” decision to raise the debt ceiling — again — could be cause for a credit rating review.  While the administration and law makers argue over which should take precedent — entitlement spending, like Social Security payments and veterans benefits; or payments to bond and debt holders — Fitch warned that any decision to not firstly honor its debt payments will “damage investor confidence in the full faith and credit of the US, which enables its ‘AAA’ rating to tolerate such high public debt.”  Just a week ago, President Trump boasted that he would shut down the government if Congress didn’t pass his border wall plan, much to the consternation of the Congress.  Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal monthly survey of forecasters saw a 22% chance of a government shut down later next month.  [source]

Meanwhile, in what could be perceived as nearing a last ditch effort to prevent war with North Korea; the US and Japanese governments are pushing for an oil embargo, which they’re hoping will persuade the Kim regime to end its development of nuclear weapons.  This comes as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, warned that “something serious has to happen” to disrupt the North Korean nuclear program. [source]

Additional analysis will appear in this Friday’s Executive Intelligence SummaryIf you’re not yet a Forward Observer member, then join us to get instant access to our intelligence reporting.  Prepared by intelligence veterans, our reporting is focused on threats at home and abroad.  Join here.