The Daily SA for Tuesday, 13 July 2021 – Forward Observer

The Daily SA for Tuesday, 13 July 2021

Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Tuesday, 13 July 2021. You can receive this daily intel brief by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa

TODAY’S SA:

  • Situational Awareness
  • Coffee Futures Rising Fast
  • New Satellites in Space Defense
  • Cyber Appointee Approved
  • Prices Rise Again 
  • Shipping Crews Get Sick
  • Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
  • Upcoming Event Calendar

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS

COFFEE: Due to prolonged drought and degraded shipping conditions, coffee prices are rising to new highs. Brazilian coffee yields are down sharply as global demand is set to outpace production for the first time since 2017. Working from home and global shut-down of traditional coffee retailers upended the market already reeling from drought in Brazil. Producers in Colombia and Vietnam report good yields but port delays are causing millions of pounds to wait for eventual delivery. (Recommendation: Start finding alternative coffee suppliers or consider buying in bulk as coffee prices are expected to continue rising. – D.M.)

SATELLITES: The US Missile Defense Agency is deploying “nanosatellites” to assist in projectile tracking and communication in a contested space battlefield. The CubeSat devices are roughly the size of a loaf of bread and are nearly impossible to target from traditional ground-based or space-based antisatellite systems. Disbursed networks of these small devices are designed to ensure communications and targeting data can be shared with the US and allies after primary satellite networks are compromised. (Analyst Comment: Second-strike survivability and response time in a space shooting war is credited with being the greatest strength and vulnerability in the US Defense enterprise. The reliance on US technology in warfighting makes everything from networks to in-orbit devices a high-value strategic target for malign actors. – D.M.)

CYBER: The Senate confirmed Jen Easterly to head the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA) late Monday. The former agency director was fired in November 2020 for not supporting Trump’s election fraud claims. Senator Peters (D-MI) said the confirmation was urgent and could have prevented the recent spate of cyber attacks emanating from Russia and state-backed entities. The defensive nature of CISA and a renewed focus on cyber should have a positive impact on our digital environment. (Analyst Comment: The US has substantial credibility to rebuild in cyber defense. CISA largely credits cyber actors when they conduct an attack so an improvement in their response time would be a welcome change as attacks are likely to continue. – D.M.)

PRICES: The consumer price index rose 5.4% from last year with the core price index hovering around 4%. The continued increase in prices is being driven by supply shortages and higher shipping costs as demand continues to outstrip supply and logistics networks. Around half of small businesses reported price increases last month, a broad movement not seen since the early 80s. Economists suspect consumers are willing to pay more in many instances because of the year of lockdowns and travel restrictions. Others predict a slowing of price increases and inflation heading into the last fiscal quarter. (Analyst Comment: Given the supply-side issues with procurement and logistics, I don’t see any real end in sight for blown-out demand based price increases. – D.M.)

CREWS: Outbreaks of COVID on commercial shipping vessels is causing concern for companies. Categorized as a perfect storm of events, new variants and inconsistent international vaccine protocols continue to impact crews already strained from port closures in China. Around 1.2 million people comprise international shipping crews and an estimated 40,000 have received vaccines, mostly from the US and China. Around half of the crews are from developing nations which remain very cautious over new outbreaks, often forcing crews to remain offshore until cleared. (Analyst Comment: Variant restrictions will result in more port closures or vessel quarantines, expect some product availability delays this fall from the backlogs. – D.M.)

HAZARDS WARNING

HURRICANE SEASON: Nothing Significant to Report.

In today’s Early Warning, Max has a roll-up of Far Left activity and upcoming unrest today and tomorrow . Upgrade your situational awareness to situational understanding here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe

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