Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Wednesday, 15 September 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Milley undermined Trump following election
- Blackrock bullish on cryptos
- 23 States reject HR4 voting act
- Supply chain poses challenge in Western wildfires
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
MILLEY: Excerpts from an upcoming book by Bob Woodward claim the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, called Chinese military officials following the Capitol protest to assure them of U.S. stability. Further meetings between House Speaker Pelosi and Gen. Milley concerned former President Trump’s access to nuclear launch codes and potential for kicking off a war to preserve power. The former president denied the allegations, pointing to previous factual errors with the author’s work. In a statement to President Biden, Sen. Rubio (R-FL) said, “It is a dangerous precedent that could be asserted at any point in the future by General Milley or others. It threatens to tear apart our nation’s longstanding principle of civilian control of the military.” (Analyst Comment: Bipartisan calls for Gen. Milley’s resignation began almost immediately as the story broke. If the story is to be believed, it is a significant indicator of a worsening intra-elite conflict. The emboldening of the Chinese military in the wake of Gen. Milley’s calls are clear as the communists view the U.S. as unable to respond without substantial in-fighting or clarity on who is in charge. – D.M.)
CRYPTO: BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, is confident that crypto “could have some real upside. My sense is there are more buyers than sellers. It’s an asset class that I think is durable.” He is bullish on crypto not because of the utility of the tokens themselves, but the blockchain technology they are built on. (AC: There have been a high number of critiques on the cryptocurrency market in the past weeks as regulation for the asset class looms. The SEC is on track to impose new regulations for crypto markets that will likely drive institutional adoption. -T.W.)
VOTING: Twenty-three states are preparing lawsuits to combat the provisions of the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. The main concerns are preclearance provisions with a 25-year window, easily-exploitable vote denial claims processes, and making Congress and the Justice Department the “czars” of every state or national election. The letter to Congressional leadership said, “H.R. 4 brands such laws discriminatory while lacking any actual evidence to back up such claims. The House of Representatives simply relied on the testimony of 35 partisan witnesses…a study the National Bureau of Economic Research conducted between 2008-2018 found that strict voter ID laws have had ‘no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any specific group defined by race, gender, age or party affiliation.’” (AC: This is one of two legal battles Texas has with the federal government, the other being SB8. Both instances place the rights of states’ to govern themselves and have the support of attorneys general from mostly red states. – D.M.)
WILDFIRES: Firefighters mobilized by the U.S. Forest Service to fight the Caldor fire are facing logistics and resourcing challenges. “Typically we can mobilize people, resources, engines and helicopters within 24 to 48 hours. What we’re finding this year with the supply chain challenges we’re facing, it’s more like 72 hours,” one official said. Standard sustainment plans are “broken”, often requiring firefighters to manage their own supply deliveries and remove personnel from battling the blaze. Shortages of fire hoses required invocation of the Defense Production Act to reopen facilities in Oklahoma. (AC: Around 44,000 wildfires have burned nearly 5,300,000 acres so far this year. The Biden administration is blaming climate change for the increase in wildfires and many Western states are extending doubt regulations through the winter. )
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Tropical Depression Nicholas continues moving slowly across the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible along the Central Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. According to the National Hurricane Center tornadoes are possible today in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The mid-Atlantic area of low pressure is expected to consolidate over the next 48 hours, but without consolidation the storms will bring high surf to the Eastern Seaboard.
In today’s Early Warning, Dustin looks at claims that Congress is unprepared for renewed Great Power Competition. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe