Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 01 November 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
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TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Pentagon taps Guam for Pacific defense strategy
- DHS to propose rule-making change to expand immigration
- Japan mulling land-attack missiles to counter China
- Democrats push for eliminating debt ceiling
- Biden admin considering release from strategic oil reserve
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
GUAM: The Pentagon is warning that existing missile defenses at Guam will not be effective against a “large Chinese missile raid.” The U.S. Pacific Defense Initiative’s “number one underfunded requirement” is a defense system for the western U.S. and Indo-Pacific region. Congress wants to rapidly field a Guam Defense System, allocating an additional $100 million above the Pentagon’s request. The new missile defense system is not expected to be complete until 2025 at the earliest. (Analyst Comment: The Pentagon is rapidly shifting its focus toward potential kinetic exchanges with China. The slow construction and fielding process gives China ample opportunity to continue their expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. As the facilities remain under evaluation and construction, the U.S. and allies remain strategically vulnerable to “overwhelming” action by China. – D.M.)
DHS: In August, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) submitted a request for public feedback to change the rules surrounding the “public charge” definition. Previously, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services could deny visa and immigration requests for anyone “likely at any time to become a public charge,” or to require public assistance. DHS had proposed changes to the definition of “public charge” and to add new exceptions for “disproportionate negative impacts on underserved communities” when determining immigration status. The period for public commenting ended last week, which likely means that an official rule change is forthcoming. – M.S.
JAPAN: Recent incursions by Chinese air and naval forces into the territorial waters and airspace of Japan have led the government of Japan to debate the acquisition of land-attack missile systems, capable of reaching mainland China and North Korea. Japan views these missile systems as needed to maintain a balance of military power in the region. This move could also open up avenues for Japan to develop nuclear weapons if they believe the United States won’t check Chinese military power over the disputed Senkaku Islands. – M.M.
DEFAULT: Ahead of December’s debt ceiling date, 79 Democrats penned a letter to House and Senate leadership requesting several measures be taken to avoid a “catastrophic” default. First, they asked to 1) permanently repeal the debt limit in order to avoid future deadlines, 2) authorize the Treasury Department to unilaterally raise the debt limit, 3) authorize the president to raise the debt limit, 4) “peg the debt limit” to the actual debt level as to avoid future authorizations, and/or raise or suspend the debt limit to an unspecified future date. (AC: As Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio warned earlier this year, no one knows how much debt the United States can accrue before it becomes fatal, and the only way to find out is after it happens. – M.S.)
OIL: The Biden administration is considering a release of oil from the strategic stockpile in order to combat higher oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude topped $84/barrel, and appears to be headed higher. Biden officials blamed OPEC for high prices. (AC: This could provide some temporary relief, however, the real problem is that oil demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels while oil production has not. Insiders are still betting on $100/barrel next year, so expect ongoing turmoil over oil prices. Over the weekend, China released fuel from its reserves to lower gas prices, as well. One near-term concern is home heating oil. As prices rise heading into winter, expect additional strain on the electrical grid, especially for states running predominantly on renewables, which could lead to brownouts. – M.S.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Nothing significant to report.
WX:
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The only actual missile defense systems are the Aegis cruisers with their SM-3’s, good for protecting a ship, or two. Ft. Greely, which would have to launch every missile on the base for one, or two hit to kills. Vandenberg would have to launch all their missiles, to make it look like we were paying attention. Guam, Australia, and Japan would need a hundred missiles each, to be effective. Then there’s Cape Cod, Bermuda, Puerto Rico, and the dry tortugas…