Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 13 September 2021. You can receive this briefing by email by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
- Sen. Manchin risks spending bill
- CPI numbers pressure market
- Nuclear satellites sought by DoD
- Vaccine mandate for flights expected
- $2.9T in new taxes from Congress
- Typhoons suspend Asian shipping
BUDGET: Lawmakers are concerned that there is no possibility the $3.5 trillion budget bill can be passed by September 27th. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) stated that “There’s no way that we can get this done by the 27th if we do our job.” The concerns rose after it was discovered the budget bill could be 10,000 pages long, and with only two weeks to review it. Sen. Manchin does not think that we need to table another $3.5 trillion after “we’ve tried to help Americans in every way we possibly can.” (Analyst Comment: Sen. Manchin is concerned his colleagues will not have enough time to examine the bill. The Democratic party is trying to work around the 60-vote majority normally required to pass legislation for a proposal amending the budget bill that would legalize 8 million illegal immigrants with a simple majority of at least 51 votes. – T.W.)
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: The consumer price index (CPI) will be public on Tuesday and will measure how much of the increased costs in production have been passed on to consumers. Expectations sit at 5.3% for a year-over-year measure of the CPI. Growth expectations for the economy have decreased for the fall, and large investment banks are concerned that the stock market dip we have experienced during the last week will continue throughout this week largely due to concerns on the coronavirus delta variant and its impact on individual’s spending habits. – T.W.
SPACE: The Department of Defense released a contracting solicitation for nuclear-powered propulsion systems in space. The limiting factor of many space-based technologies are solar-powered systems and shielding, which the private sector aims to solve for “small and medium-sized spacecraft.” Other nuclear propulsion efforts are underway for rapid cislunar maneuvering, spearheaded by Lockheed, Blue Origin, and General Atomics. (AC: International non-nuclear proliferation agreements are being cast aside as the U.S. is attempting to respond to Chinese and Russian joint projects aimed at constructing bases on the moon and militarizing near-Earth space. The increased nuclearization of space indicates it is considered contested territory by the U.S. and China. – D.M.)
FLIGHTS: Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci said he would support a vaccination mandate for air travelers. “I would support that, if you want to get on a plane and travel with other people that you should be vaccinated,” Fauci said. Two bills in the House are HR 4980 and the Safe Travel Act, which would require transportation workers and travelers to be vaccinated or show a negative test before traveling. (AC: The White House Press Secretary alluded to a new travel restriction on Friday, but sweeping rule changes will require legislation as recent Biden executive orders face increasing court challenges. That has not previously dissuaded the administration from acting unilaterally. – D.M.)
TAXES: As part of the legislative packages due this week in Congress, the capital gains tax is expected to increase from 20% to 25%. The corporate tax rate is expected to increase from 21% to 26.5% in a more modest increase than the White House wanted. Democrats’ draft language includes a 3% annual surcharge on earners over $5 million. In total, $2.9 trillion in new taxes are projected as a result of expanded social programs, risking U.S. economic recovery and expansion as inflation fears are being realized. (AC: The tax and spend style of governance is likely to remain popular as the national government expands its list of “free” services like child care, family leave, rent, community college, and other provisions without a growth plan for the individual to eventually contribute to the tax base. – D.M.)
SHIPPING: Due to the ongoing impacts of Typhoon Chanthu, several major ports and air terminals in Eastern China are suspending services. Shanghai’s sea and air terminals, the Ningbo port, Zhoushan refineries and schools in many cities are shut down as a result of flooding, power outages, and strong winds. Supply chain analysts say the closures “are likely to further delay shipments and damage global supply chains” as no relief in logistics is on the horizon. (AC: The majority of holiday consumer goods are coming from Asia, with September and October considered the last window for shipping. Expect continued decreases in product availability like technology, furniture, tools, auto parts, and clothing this winter. – D.M.)
HURRICANE SEASON: Tropical Storm Nicholas will bring heavy rains to Texas and Louisiana causing “considerable flash and urban flooding.” The National Hurricane Center says life-threatening storm surges are expected from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. The storm may strengthen to hurricane intensity as it makes landfall in the middle Texas coast. The Atlantic low pressure areas have a moderate likelihood of forming a tropical depression over the next 96 hours.
In today’s Early Warning, Dustin examines irregular warfare in the 21st century and Max details Far Left weekend activity. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe