Early Warning for Tuesday, 27 October 2020

Good afternoon. Here’s your Early Warning for Tuesday, 27 October 2020.



  • Dems plotting Senate leadership for 2021
  • Congressional Progressive Caucus accused of making a “power grab”
  • No stimulus deal until November at earliest
  • Real estate runup and rural business
  • Riots erupt in Philadelphia
  • Leftists plan further post-Election Day protests
  • Oregon legislators drafting bill to ban doxxing


Dems plotting Senate leadership for 2021

Democrats are sizing up leadership positions on powerful Senate committees should Republicans lose their majority. Democrats will take leadership positions on the Senate Intelligence, Foreign Relations, Budget, Appropriations, and Banking committees. (Analyst Comment: The top priority for Democrats upon taking the House in the 2018 midterms was using the power of House Intelligence to subpoena and investigate officials in the Trump administration. Democrats taking over the Senate Intelligence and Foreign Relations committees will be in a similar position, making a second Trump term very difficult to navigate. Meanwhile, the Office of the Special Counsel launched a probe into whether Secretary of State Mike Pompeo violated the Hatch Act during a GOP Convention speech he gave while on an official trip to Israel. If President Trump wins reelection and Democrats take the Senate, expect a lot more probes and investigations via the power of Senate Intelligence and Foreign Relations. – S.C.)

Congressional Progressive Caucus leader accused of making a “power grab”

The Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) is meeting today by phone to discuss reforms should Democrats sweep the government in November. One of the potential reforms includes culling the second co-chair of the committee, making Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) the sole leader of the CPC. Some members have accused Jayapal of making a “power grab”. (AC: Progressive Democrats are looking forward to a clean sweep of government. That includes Jayapal, who’s trying to solidify her power to quickly make progressive changes to House legislation. Yesterday I mentioned that the number of democratic socialists in Congress is virtually certain to increase in 2021. If elected, those candidates will be joining the caucus, making the CPC one of the largest in Congress.  – S.C.)


No stimulus deal until November at earliest

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke by phone today but failed to make progress on the next stimulus deal. Meanwhile, Senate Appropriations chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) told reporters today that the committee was leaving for recess and wouldn’t be back in session until 09 November. (AC: One trend from recent economic warnings is the danger of softening economic conditions without more stimulus. Looking at the data, the recovery so far has been fueled by stimulus, and the question is will there be a reversal in growth once government programs expire. Another round of stimulus checks would likely have led to a moderate, short term boost in economic activity, helping President Trump’s reelection chances. – S.C.)

Real estate run up and rural business

Real estate has been trending upwards in suburban, sub-rural, and rural areas as workers flee the cities due to remote working, taxes, and COVID restrictions. This drive to spread out has in some cases revived local small businesses, even as social distancing requirements challenge them. (AC: While the migration to smaller towns has put pressure on local infrastructure, the trend opens an opportunity for light commercial and service business as the new residents shop and seek employment. There may be investment opportunities, as well. – C.H.)  

The information provided by Forward Observer in this report is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. You should consult with a financial advisor to determine what may be best for your financial needs.


Riots erupt in Philadelphia

Hundreds of Black Lives Matter activists rioted in Philadelphia after a viral video showed a police involved shooting that resulted in the death of Walter Wallace. Wallace was armed with a knife and appears to charge officers while refusing to obey police orders. In response, rioters looted businesses, set fire to police cruisers and privately owned vehicles parked along the street, and lit large dumpsters fires in the street. Rioters additionally attacked police officers with projectiles, paint, bats, lasers, and vehicles, injuring at least 30 officers. (AC: Through the riot, antifascist and BLM intelligence support provided real-time information on police locations, undercover officers, and drone deployments. Local law enforcement reacted by frequently changing their frequencies to cut down on the amount of information available via police scanner. Antifascist and BLM intelligence support began encouraging activists to act as scouts and livestream police locations. -F.C. This change in tactics highlights activists’ ability to adapt to limitations in the information environment. Lessons learned during these events will likely feed further refinement of intelligence support planned for post-Election Day disruptions. We have already observed solidarity events planned for this week in Seattle, Portland, Chicago, and Denver, which are likely to lead to further violence and disruption. – M.B.)

Leftists plan further post-Election Day protests

Far Left groups across the country plan to protest at the private residences of Republican Representatives and Senators following Election Day. Recent communications included plans to protest Republicans who won their races, and also defeated candidates in order to heckle them. (AC: One significant component of  Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China was “struggle sessions.” People found not to be fully supportive of the proletariat were verbally and physically assaulted by community members until a forced–and often false–confession was extracted. For years, Leftists have doxxed conservatives and others, seeking to ruin them professionally, socially or financially. Leftists have assaulted Trump supporters at public events and intimidated people on the street to raise fists, kneel, or pledge their support to Leftist ideology. On social media, Leftists continue to shame or pressure politicians, public figures, and corporations that are not sufficiently woke. Leftists have created websites doxxing and mapping out Trump campaign contributors. While current activities don’t yet rise to the level of the Maoist revolution, they are clearly part of the ongoing cultural revolution. – M.B.)

Oregon legislators drafting bill to ban doxxing

The Oregon legislature’s Joint Committee on Transparent Policing and the Use of Force Reform is drafting two bills for 2021 that would make it illegal to post someone’s personal information online. Specifically, the bills would ban doxxing–including a person’s address, contact information, employer info, or photos–and restrict police from releasing mug shots to the public. (AC: Antifascists in the Pacific Northwest conduct extensive doxxing campaigns against accused white supremacists and police officers. Anti-doxxing legislation could be used by state law enforcement to crack down on intelligence support to insurgent activity. Many Leftists on social media, however, have already stated that they will not comply with any ban. In addition, restrictions on posting mugshots could hamper local law enforcement efforts to locate and arrest rioters. – M.B.)

Upcoming Event Calendar

27 October: Solidarity with Philadelphia (BLM) (Denver, CO)

31 October: The Modern Revolution (Insurgence USA) (Salt Lake City, UT)

03 November: Free the People, Fight the Power (Insurgence USA) (Washington, D.C.) 

04-11 November: Week of Action (DSA/Antifa) (Salem & Portland, OR) 

07 November: Black People’s March on the White House (BLM)

(Washington, D.C.)


S.C. indicates analyst commentary from Samuel Culper

M.B. indicates analyst commentary from Max Baer

C.H. indicates analyst commentary from Charley Hogwood

F.C. indicates commentary from Fox Company reporter

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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