// National Intelligence Bulletin to follow.
(1) Imminent Risk
Israel-Iran: Last Friday, an Israeli strike on Iran was moved from Elevated to Imminent Risk due to the growing likelihood. Last night, Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, killing senior Iranian military leaders and destroying military and nuclear infrastructure. Iran has vowed retaliation, while Israel says additional rounds of strikes are coming. The greatest domestic economic U.S. risk is that Israel strikes Iranian oil infrastructure in order to cripple the Iranian economy, potentially causing a global oil crisis. In addition to being inflationary, spikes in oil prices have led to six of the 10 economic recessions since 1960. There’s also concern that Iranian proxy groups could launch attacks in the U.S., however, we believe this is unlikely for many reasons.
Low Intensity Conflict: Reported civil disturbances diminished last night, down to three cities from 15 over the past week. Discouragement from state and city leaders seems to be having an effect. / The “No Kings” national day of resistance kicks off tomorrow morning, with over 2,000 protests scheduled over the weekend. We expect daytime protests to be mostly peaceful, although the risk of political violence remains high heading into Saturday night. See the Protest & Riot Tracker for additional information.
(2) Elevated Risk
Food & Ag: Another Chinese national from Wuhan was arrested after smuggling “biological material related to roundworms” into the University of Michigan in 2024 and 2025. / Drug price research firm 46brooklyn said the Trump administration’s executive order requiring U.S. drug makers to match overseas prices could lead to the systemic collapse of Medicaid and Medicare drug rebate programs.
Energy: The North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) warned that large data centers connecting to power grids are now the greatest near-term challenge to grid stability, and could result in unplanned outages during peak demand.
(3) Outlook Stable
Hurricane Season: President Donald Trump said the administration will delay winding down the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) until after the 2025 hurricane season
NATO: German Chancellor Merz said that President Trump told him that the U.S. would not be leaving NATO. Merz told a German audience that the concern was not “unjustified,” as Europe has “unfortunately been free-riders on American security guarantees for years and that’s changing.”
Indo-Pacific: China is likely preparing for a major blockade defense exercise with two carrier strike groups currently deployed to the Pacific. At this time, it does not appear China will roll the exercise into a blockade of Taiwan, although this could easily change within 36 hours.
Nothing follows. //