Risk: What you need to know for the next six months…

I’ve been preparing for this week’s Strategic Warning presentation.

For about an hour on Thursday night, I’ll be covering the political, social, and economic risks we’ll face through the November elections, which are now less than six months away.

In short, there are several trends developing right now that could make this fall an absolute disaster.

I’ve identified 14 trends overall that will have a major impact, and I want to share with you some of my notes for the presentation.

When I think about conflict, especially deteriorating social and political conditions that are leading to a domestic conflict, I consider three elements:

  • Fault Lines
  • Accelerators
  • Triggers

Most of the fault lines are obvious, so I won’t cover them here.

We’re already in a “low intensity conflict,” which is conflict below the threshold of conventional war (tanks, bombers, troops) but above routine, peaceful competition. In other words, this is widening tribal conflict and political violence.

This is the gray zone between war and peace in America, and what happens in November could blow this wide open.

Here are a few draft notes I typed up this morning:

– Economic conditions may begin to improve over the near term, but personal finances for many Americans will continue to hemorrhage, leading to mortgage defaults, suppressed consumer demand (which is already imperiling U.S. companies and sending some into bankruptcy protection), and a desire for increased government intervention in the form of relief and stimulus. We expect to have a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall, which could reset progress made in the economy over the summer. We’re nowhere close to being out of the woods here. These are accelerators of low intensity conflict. Last year I made the case that the depth and width of a conflict would likely be determined in part by the state of the U.S. economy. Obviously, we’ve entered a new league of possibilities.

– I’m still determining whether November elections will be an accelerator or a trigger of conflict. It largely depends on who wins and how —  are election results contested, and by whom? Is the election outcome determined by a court system (re: Florida 2000)? How credible and widespread are the accusations of voter fraud or other irregularities? The presidential election is the number one risk for the country right now, and many of you certainly share this sentiment. What concerns me more than election day, however, is what happens in the weeks after. I’ll be sharing those thoughts with you on Thursday night.

– The COVID-19 pandemic has been a boon for revolutionary politics. We’ve seen a determined effort to organize rent strikes, there have been dozens of worker protests in the past couple months, and there are calls for a general strike later this year (or perhaps after the reelection of President Trump). Democratic socialists and their political action arms continue to push new candidates into politics. Just the other day, a fundraising email from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) implored fellow socialists to send more “progressive” voices to Congress so that AOC wouldn’t be so lonely. There’s a growing political insurgency that won’t be swept away, largely due to economic conditions and the momentum built by the Bernie Sanders campaign. This is also an accelerator of low intensity conflict.

On Thursday, 14 May at 7pm Central, I’ll be giving the entire presentation to Forward Observer members, as I present data points that turn into trends, and trends into trajectories and forecasts.

I want you to join me.

Because this material is so crucial for being prepared for the future, I want you to hear and see it.

Here’s what I’m offering:

Join Forward Observer at https://members.forwardobserver.com.

Attend Thursday night’s Strategic Warning brief and get the full picture of what’s ahead of us.

If you’re not satisfied, simply email me within 24 hours of the presentation (by Friday night) and request a refund.

I’m convinced that what I have to offer is so valuable that you’ll want to stay on as a member. If I’m wrong, then I’ll give your money back, no questions asked.
Until next time, be well. I’ll see you on Thursday night.

 

 

Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper

P.S. – There are lots of other benefits to being a Forward Observer member. Head over to https://members.forwardobserver.com and take a look at what else we offer for members.

Samuel Culper is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. Iraq(x1)/Afghanistan(x2). He now studies intelligence and warfare.

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