What casinos and SHTF preparedness have in common

In terms of losses, what do you think the worst day in casino history is?

Casinos are known for making/taking money from their guests. “The house always wins,” as they say.

Turns out, that’s not always true. Here’s why it matters for SHTF Intelligence.

By far, the worst loss in casino history was well over $100 million. In 2003, a Sigfried and Roy show was ended when a performing tiger mauled illusionist Roy Horn. The show’s multi-million dollar end, plus other damages, cost the casino big time.

Risk managers had taken out an insurance policy in case a tiger attacked an audience member, but they failed to consider a type of off-model risk. A black swan, if you will.

In his book, The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses another off-model risk. While trying to avoid losses at the betting table, one casino nearly lost its operating license after an employee failed to turn in some forms to the state licensing office.

Risk managers consumed with win and loss rates didn’t factor in the potential that their casino could be shut down due to a few forms.

As opposed to on-model risks, these off-model risks constitute potentially foreseeable events that were never considered.

So what does this have to do with SHTF Intelligence?

My question for those in the preparedness community is: What are your off-model risks?

Millions of Americans are planning for an EMP, a grid-down environment, an economic collapse, or some other catastrophic event. These risks have been well-documented. There are likely area threats that you’ve failed to consider.

One reason why I’m adamant about conducting an Area Study is that we’re certain to overlook some obvious risks, threats, and vulnerabilities if we don’t conduct a methodical and systematic examination of our operating environment.

What SHTF Intelligence allows us to do is get these off-model risks onto our list of on-model risks.

You can take a free email course on the Area Study here: https://forwardobserver.com/area-study-ecourse/

In that email course, you’ll learn about what goes into an Area Study, where to find that information, and how to build an intelligence product that drives preparedness and security planning.

If you have any questions, just reply to this email. I’d love to hear from you and talk more about intelligence.

Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper

PS. You should take me up on the Area Study eCourse. It’s five simple emails with tons of knowledge that will help you better plan for an SHTF event. Sign up here: https://forwardobserver.com/area-study-ecourse/

Samuel Culper is a former military intelligence NCO and contract Intelligence analyst. He spent three years in Iraq and Afghanistan and is now the intelligence and warfare researcher at Forward Observer.

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5 Comments

  1. Absolutely dead on as usual.

    After reading and watching everything you’ve produced I’m curious about your (and the community’s) thoughts on what seems a hole in people’s thinking about SHTF and/or Civil War 2

    1) If Civil War 2 happens, things will likely devolve to another world war as other nations, sensing our weakness, begin wars of expansion. Which would likely mean invading the US.

    2) SHTF is a likely result of the democrats achieving one party rule. They have stated their intention to institute policies exactly like those that have crushed so many other countries (Venezuela as a recent example).

    Both of these scenarios seem quite plausible and also relatively near-term (my lifetime). They will likely result in overwhelmingly authoritarian governments with strict gun control and confiscation. And there’ll be no hiding from the latter as the government knows everyone who has purchased ammunition and/or firearms.

    Which creates an interesting quandary:
    1) Escape now as some Jews did as Hitler and the National Socialists began their rise to power and declared their intents. Knowing that the government will likely confiscate retirement savings of ex-pats.
    2) Stay and fight. But, without leadership and plan this seems dubious.
    I can build skills and supplies, but I just

    1. I don’t foresee an invasion of the mainland. If Russia and China have learned anything over the past 20 years, it’s that you can’t sustain supply lines over that distance. If they expand, Russia will go into the Baltics and and China will move farther into the Pacific.

      1. Good point.

        But there’s still the likely authoritarian socialist fist coming from one-party rule. Which, if it happens, will rapidly reduce us to a SHTF conditions but without the means (or leadership) to do anything about it

        The one bright spot I see in this scenario is that people are turning against the “popular culture” and maybe we can avert that disaster in time

        1. That is the ONLY bright spot, and it is completely reasonable that it wont be nearly enough.

          I struggle with that revelation as well.

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