Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 04 October 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Congress pushes back against military “Red Flag” laws
- State Department warns China against military flights
- China meeting 62% of trade deal obligations
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
RED FLAG: The House version of the National Defense Authorization Act includes “red flag” provisions, allowing for military courts to seize firearms from servicemembers. The bill stipulates a 180-day suspension on access to firearms and may be issued without the servicemember’s presence, and extended after an initial 30-day period. Around 150 Republican lawmakers signed a letter to Senate and House Armed Services leadership to remove the provision citing “a serious breach of due process.” (AC: The efforts to resist this are likely to fail as Democrats have the majority and many Republican lawmakers will continue supporting Defense spending, despite this inclusion. If enacted, this provision could be used to continue the political purging of the military as service members subjected to the confiscations will certainly face additional professional consequences, including separation. – D.M.)
TAIWAN: The U.S. State Department issued a rebuke of Chinese military flights over Taiwan’s airspace. Formations of nuclear-capable bombers, tactical fighters, and electronic warfare aircraft from China are increasing in Taiwanese airspace, with more than 100 planes violating its defense zone this past weekend. State Department spokesman Ned Price said, “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.” Price also reaffirmed U.S. commitments to security cooperation agreements with Taiwan, despite increased pressure from the communists. (AC: The frequency, intensity, and duration of Chinese military flights over Taiwan indicate multiple battle scenarios playing out in the region. Previously, we’ve discussed the “brightline” for a Chinese assault on either Taiwan or Japan as the Chinese are prepared to attack both nations simultaneously. According to Chinese officials, their initial strike plans are designed to minimize Western responses. They will likely coincide with a series of cyberattacks against the U.S., European and Indo-Pacific allies. – D.M.)
TRADE: The Biden administration is set to reintroduce targeted tariffs against China. The communist regime is accused of failing to meet their purchasing agreements, signed during the previous administration. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai is expected to make a speech before a call with her Chinese counterpart. Administration officials are not seeking a phase 2 deal, instead focusing on getting the Chinese to meet the basic terms of the existing agreement. (AC: China is short around $200 billion in trades, or 62% of their commitment. The statements by U.S. officials are likely to prompt a harsh response from the Chinese government, but the reality of food and energy shortages in China provides the U.S. more leverage in negotiating. Rejecting a second phase deal indicates the current administration seeing relations worsening, with no economic path toward cooperation. – D.M.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: The low-pressure area off the Atlantic Coast is unlikely to form into an organized system of storms. Tropical Depression Victor is likely to lose its momentum and dissipate in the next 48 hours.
In today’s Early Warning, we dive into the U.S. strategy of denial and China. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe