Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 07 March 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Russia preparing to disconnect from global internet
- Yellen: Sluggish growth for decades
- War impacts vehicle production worldwide
- Global instability causes gas prices to skyrocket
- China warns “No NATO in Pacific”
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- Russia-NATO SITREP: RUSSIA STALLS, BLINKEN’S “GREEN LIGHT,” CYBER OPERATIONS
- Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA AIDS RUSSIAN MEDIA SITES AFTER NATIONWIDE HACK, PLA COMPLETES MASSIVE HELIPORT ALONG DISPUTED BORDER WITH INDIA
- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
RUSSIA PREPARING TO DISCONNECT FROM GLOBAL INTERNET: Russia announced that no later than March 11, all internet traffic must use domestic “domain name systems” (DNS). This would effectively remove Russia from the global internet as only “.ru” connections would be made. This announcement comes on the heels of targeted cyber disruptions to Russian media and governmental websites attributed to the Anonymous organization. (Analyst Comment: Russia’s decision to isolate itself from the global internet may be to protect domestic infrastructure from further international action. It may also indicate preparations for cyber escalation. – D.M.)
YELLEN: SLUGGISH GROWTH FOR DECADES: During a speech on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that “Forecasters uniformly agree that [economic] growth over the next several decades will be sluggish.” Yellen added that aging demographics and slowing productivity are to blame. During the speech to members of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Yellen added that she believes the Federal Reserve will tackle inflation and ensure a “soft landing” while avoiding a recession. (AC: For at least five years – since the 2017 World Economic Forum – economic analysts, hedge fund managers, and other investment officers have warned about the potential for stagflation, or stagnant economic growth and higher inflation. Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio and Greg Jenson have both warned about the political and societal impacts that persistently low economic growth will bring. I’ll have more in Thursday’s Economic Early Warning report. – M.S.)
WAR IMPACTS VEHICLE PRODUCTION WORLDWIDE: Vehicle manufacturers are trying to adjust supply chains away from Russia’s MMC Norilsk Nickel. Currently, no Western sanctions are targeting the nickel and palladium producer, but possible future sanctions against its owners are driving prices higher. (AC: The federal government and many states instituted all-electric vehicle mandates by 2030. As geopolitical instability is likely to continue, the rare earth mineral market is unlikely to meet the increased demand. Vehicle repair parts and new components are likely to remain scarce as existing inventories are depleted and face potential future disruptions. – D.M.)
GLOBAL INSTABILITY CAUSES GAS PRICES TO SKYROCKET: The national average for a gallon of gas topped $4. This increase marks the highest average price at the pump since 2008. The Biden administration is considering whether to prohibit Russian oil imports into the U.S. Last week administration officials met with oil and gas industry leaders to forecast how a ban would affect American consumers and global energy supplies. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows that 3% of domestic crude oil shipments came from Russia. Additionally, Administration officials are working with allies and former adversaries to alleviate the oil pressures worldwide. Over the weekend, members of the Biden administration met with Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro. Both Republicans and Democrats have been reported to suggest that Venezuelan oil can replace Russian oil. The U.S. ceased diplomatic relations with the Venezuelan President in 2019. (AC: Biden administration is attempting to balance the consequences of party line sustainable energy initiatives against rising prices at the pump. Options previously discussed to alleviate rising prices were a federal gas tax holiday and releasing more barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve; however, reaching out to former adversaries will bring more scrutiny on the administration contrasting against the decision to shut down the Keystone Pipeline. Major oil companies have already started to leave Russia, enabling an oil ban from the federal government with less risk. – D.F.)
CHINA WARNS NO NATO IN THE PACIFIC: In an annual news briefing with Chinese state-backed media outlets, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the U.S. against trying to build what he referred to as a Pacific version of NATO. He went on to add that the security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.” Wang Yi stated that the real goal of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy was to form Asia’s version of NATO and that the U.S. is attempting to form blocs to suppress China’s growth. A complaint previously made by Russian President Vladimir Putin prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Wang Yi went on to say “The perverse actions run counter to the common aspiration of the region for peace, development, cooperation and win-win outcomes,” Wang added. “They are doomed to fail.” (AC. Wang Yi’s complaints refer to the U.S. sponsorship of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and its efforts to shore up support for Taiwan’s continued efforts to remain free of mainland China’s control. The escalation of rhetoric vis-à-vis Taiwan is an expected step in China’s goal of reunifying the island nation under control of the Chinese Communist Party and its overall objective to gain control of the Pacific’s first island chain. – M.M.)
HAZARDS WARNING
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