December Update on Low Intensity Conflict – Forward Observer

December Update on Low Intensity Conflict

It’s been a while since I sent out a Dispatch, so I wanted to give everyone an update on how I see things now and where we’re headed next.

First, the Most Dangerous Course of Action didn’t materialize. Although there have been numerous skirmishes between Trump supporters and Leftist groups, we saw nothing on the level of the popular revolution that was being fomented in response to a Trump win.

I have concerns over how the bean counting played out. If signature matching requirements were enforced, then we might be looking at a second term for President Trump. The fact that it didn’t happen in key states is a testament to the politicization of “free and fair” elections; a condition which will hang over the future.

There’s some talk about President Trump “crossing the Rubicon” to stay in office. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and at this point the odds don’t favor Trump being president after 20 January 2021, despite ongoing and adamant prognostications to the contrary.

So where does that leave us? Is the era of low intensity conflict over?

No. In fact, I think we’re just getting started. Here are three reasons.

1. Given what we know about Biden/Harris policies, continued political, social, and economic turmoil is likely. At a minimum, the Right will pick up where they left off under Obama. There have already been a few calls for secession. Throw in the possibility that Democrats take a Senate majority in Georgia’s special election next month, and calls for secession may again boil into movements. A resurgence of militia and Three Percent activity, some of which died down after Trump was elected, is likely to return. In short, a Biden administration will be no better than a third Obama term, and could be significantly worse, especially on gun control policies and changing ATF regulations.

2. The Biden victory emboldened the Leftist cultural revolution. With at least five new socialist members of Congress, the Far Left political insurgency will expand, and the march through commercial and social institutions will accelerate. The American identity will continue to change, as “New America” — racially, ethnically, and religiously diverse; socially progressive; and a mix of economically social-capitalist or socialist — continues to redefine the country away from predominantly European, Christian, and capitalist “Old America”. We’ll see every attempt to permanently redefine “fundamental American values” as the cultural revolution cements this new national identity. We’ve seen this kind of tectonic shift in American society three times before: the lead up to the American Revolution, the lead up to the Civil War, and during the Civil Rights Era. In two of the three instances, tectonic shifts in society led to earthquakes of armed conflict. We’re experiencing a fourth shift right now, which is likely to last through the decade.

3. Lastly, anarchist, socialist, and communist revolutionary groups proliferated under the Trump administration. The number and membership of armed Leftist groups has grown exponentially over the past four years, as have unarmed activist groups. We saw this most recently during the Shutdown D.C. effort, whose organizers were planning to stage a people’s revolution against President Trump’s second term. Meanwhile, armed Leftist groups have made significant advancements in their capabilities. Just a few years ago, we’d see pictures of Leftists armed with a shotgun or Grandpa’s bolt-action rifle. Today, we’re seeing AR-15s with appropriate optics, IFAKs, body armor, radios, and other equipment. Record purchases of firearms and ammunition is no longer being driven only by the Right. There’s also been a number of military veterans, to include former special operations soldiers, joining armed Leftist groups as instructors, mentors, and/or active participants. While the number and size of armed Leftist groups remains relatively small compared to armed Right Wing groups, the growth and level of advancement in just a few years is worth nothing. Most importantly, though, Leftist groups have been building the intelligence, communications, and logistics networks required for sustained conflict. Developing networks takes time and expertise, and Leftist groups are currently far outpacing the Right in this realm. This would become a strategic advantage if the current low intensity conflict were to heat up.

For these three reasons, I see low intensity conflict continuing well into this decade. And we haven’t gotten into my economic expectations, which will drive class conflict and likely lead to substantial changes in the financial environment and monetary policy. This is going to be a big, important decade for U.S. history.

That’s an incredibly abbreviated version of some of the trends I’m tracking. If you’re concerned about the future, and you want clear, accurate expectations of the future, then subscribe to my Early Warning service. My daily reports save you time because we report only on what matters and what’s happening in the future.

Don’t stay behind the curve any longer. Subscribe here.

Until next time, be well.

Always Out Front,

Samuel Culper

Mike Shelby is a former Intelligence NCO and contractor. He's now the CEO of Forward Observer.

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  1. For many years, the framework of US culture was shaped by the Christian worldview and equal opportunity. Today, the culture is being shaped by a secular worldview and a narrative of equal outcomes with the threat of riots, anarchy, and destruction of property for those who oppose it. Race is the catalyst that is being used to transform the nation into a socialist state. Fear is propelling it forward. A false racial narrative of ‘systemic racism’ is being promoted in the name of equality by racial Marxists from the Black Lives Matter organization and socialist legislators. Anarchists and so-called “antifascists” today riot in frustration out of perceived injustices due to inequalities, not lack of opportunities. How did it come to this? Because people chose to live in fear of words, fear of inequality and fear of each other.

    It used to be that the prevailing social contract was “If one got an education and worked hard, a person could, regardless of skin color, be prosperous. And people need to be competitive in order to be independent from the state”. Today, there is a new social contract that says “Everyone is entitled to the same outcome regardless of one’s education level. If there is an unequal outcome and people are not equally prosperous, competition should end and everyone should be equally dependent on the state”.

    In a fully formed socialist state, independent thinking is heavily discouraged. All information must come from the state and all speech must conform to the state narrative. The people must be brainwashed to keep them in subjection to the government. The media crafts a narrative designed to keep the people believing in the government’s social contract, while the internet and other forms of communication are monitored closely, censored or shut down. In the past, ‘unacceptable’ speech has in some socialist countries resulted in serious consequences… concentration camps, torture and death.

    In the USA, there has been a trend toward political correctness, word policing, censorship, doxxing and other forms of ‘cancel culture’ due to speech or views determined by liberals, democrats and militant leftists to be offensive or unacceptable. Cancel culture has taken over a socialist state role of dictating to the people what they may or may not say, regardless of their freedom to say it. This is a clear and present danger to the 1st amendment, which is supposed to protect free speech, even speech that is offensive. It is wholly un-American and a threat to the nation.

    Cancel culture is being used to enshrine a liberal and racial narrative into the collective consciences of Americans, one that may someday metamorphose into a state media narrative. What serious consequences could happen in a nation where words have become weapons? What has history taught us about what happens to people when their freedom of speech is eliminated? If you don’t know the answer to that question, then you need to watch interviews of North Korean, Venezuelan or Cuban refugees or interviews with survivors from the Chinese cultural revolution.

    In a socialist state, the government has and keeps the guns, preventing the people from defending against human rights abuses and other forms of oppression from their own government. In the USA, the 2nd Amendment was included to keep the people armed in case the government became oppressive. In the USA, home to millions of legal gun owners, there is a constant attack on the 2nd amendment. The liberal / democrat anti-gun lobby knows they can’t remove the 2nd amendment all at once, so their strategy is to whittle it down by individual gun parts. They want to make owning a gun so restrictive as to be impractical and ultimately, undesirable. But this could escalate. President-elect Joe Biden is on record as declaring that nobody should own an AR15 and he fully supported Beto O’Rourke’s declaration that he would come for everyone’s privately owned AR15. 70 million republican legal, legal gun-owning voters disagree with them. The 2nd amendment disagrees with them. This can’t end well.

    Who are these liberals and democrats who hate America, the US Constitution, capitalism and freedom so much? In 2019, socialist Bernie Sander’s supporters numbered in the millions. In fact, a quarter to a third of democrat voters supported Sanders in state and national polls. Most of his supporters were young, unemployed liberals with low income and often with high college debt but no college degree. In other words, they are immature, impressionable, unskilled, uneducated underachievers who were brainwashed by America-hating liberal professors to tear down America and rebuild it as a genderless socialist utopia.

    This will be easier to accomplish with the help of socialists in state and federal government, people who democrats are voting in. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (AOC) is but one of a growing number of junior legislators and politicians who are driving more mainline democrats farther left, ensuring that a socialist worldview will be promoted in the years to come.

    In the recent 2020 presidential election, over 50% of the voting public allegedly voted against Donald Trump, a capitalist entrepreneur who stands for patriotism, the US Constitution, hard work, equal opportunity and the 2nd amendment. Instead, they voted for Joe Biden, a liberal democrat career politician who will seek to undo everything his capitalist predecessor stands for and achieved. Biden’s administration will undoubtedly be populated by liberals who will seek to legislate their socialist ideology onto the rest of the country. With the addition of 20 million illegal immigrants granted citizenship under Biden, it is nearly certain that Biden’s presidency will be followed by another democrat president.

    At this point, it appears to me that the USA is adopting some of the socio-cultural aspects of a socialist state and will continue a decline toward socialism in the coming years. Unless by some miracle Republicans are voted into office and reclaim a majority in both house and senate, it is probably an irreversible trend. The culture itself is changing. The election of Joe Biden has only increased the speed of descent into a dark, socialist nightmare that at the present time is being formed by media, political correctness, Democrats, liberal ‘progressives’, Antifa, Black Lives Matter and cancel culture in general.

    The culture in the USA is being shaped by people who have no problem burning a business down because of what you say, if what you believe conflicts with their claim of inequality. They feel morally justified in terrorizing the public into compliance. They’re doing the work of nazis, while calling others fascists. Using fear of reprisals and a carefully crafted narrative, they are using media and fear to shape our culture into one based on equal outcomes instead of equal opportunity. They are creating the conditions of a socialist state within a democratic republic.
    In my opinion, the USA is too fragmented to return to what it once was. The trajectory has been irreconcilably altered. The divide has become too vast between liberals and conservatives, and it will continue to grow wider. The number of Democrat voters, Black Lives Matter supporting racists, anarchists and other leftists is simply too great to unite the country under a conservative banner again. Liberals and non-evangelicals have won the cultural war. Democrats and socialists have won the political war. Socialists are on their way to winning the ideological war.

    The two major political parties do not work together. Nearly half the county despises the other half. There is a growing racial divide. There is no longer a religious worldview keeping people and communities together. Today, religion competes against a secular worldview as much as Democrats and Republicans compete to legislate their political worldview. These are characteristics that helped form a great nation. Now they characterize a nation being torn apart. The political and cultural divide will continue to widen. The greatest experiment in freedom and democracy is beginning to break down.

    It seems nearly inevitable that there will be a Balkanization of states sometime in the future. How far into the future? Will it be a peaceful process? Nobody knows. Until it happens, the best conservatives can do is simply to protect what belongs to them for as long as they can, support conservative Republicans when they can, uphold the US Constitution and just make the best of it.

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