Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 06 December 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Army Secretary warns of cyber attacks in Pacific
- Slovakia, EU signal diplomatic support for Taiwan
- China to build Atlantic naval base
- Ahead of talks, Putin senses weakness in Biden
- Democrat Congress compromised by Chinese
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
EXPECT CYBERATTACKS OVER TAIWAN: At the Annual Reagan National Defense Forum, Army Secretary Christine Warmouth stated that Americans should expect cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure should conflict break out in the Pacific over Taiwan. Warmouth said attacks on the U.S. power grid and transportation sector would have implications not only for how we would be able to project our military power, but also have substantial consequences for the American public. (Analyst Comment: Cyberattacks are part of the hybrid war and unrestricted warfare strategies of our two near-peer adversaries Russia and China, and a host of asymmetric adversaries like Iran and North Korea. Any modern conflict will likely include collateral cyberattacks as a tactic to disrupt national command and control functions and as a psychological weapon against the general population , whether the receiving nation is involved in kinetic operations or not. – M.M.)
TAIWAN-SLOVAKIA-EU TIES: Senior officials from the Slovak Republic are in Taiwan for talks on deepening ties with the island in the highest-level visit by the EU-member country since it opened a representative office in Taiwan in 2003. The visit by the delegation, which began on Sunday, follows a mission last month by members of the European Parliament to the self-ruled island, which is claimed by Beijing. It comes amid growing support for the island, which Beijing says is its territory to be annexed by force if necessary. (AC: The EU, which is just starting to pay attention to the global economic disruption that could result from a China-Taiwan-US conflict in the Pacific, is using its member states to publicly pledge support for Taiwan. The Slovakia visit is an attempt to influence China’s intentions vis-a-vis forced repatriation of Taiwan and further expansion in the Pacific. This is typical diplomacy in action, and potentially effective to signal western support for Taiwan. Expect to see more western attention and diplomatic visits in the future. – M.M.)
CHINA: U.S. Intelligence agencies are reporting that China intends to establish a permanent PLA Naval base on the Atlantic coast of the Central African country of Equatorial Guinea. The base will reportedly be a full-service naval facility capable of rearming and refitting China’s naval surface combatant fleet. This would give the PLA Navy the ability to sustain combat operations in the Atlantic, including along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Principal deputy U.S. national security adviser Jon Finer visited Equatorial Guinea in October on a mission to persuade President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo and his son and heir apparent, Vice President Teodoro “Teodorin” Nguema Obiang Mangue, to reject China’s proposal. Finer’s request was denied. (AC: China is continuing on its march to become a global hegemon. Africa is a resource-rich continent which China sees as an important means of sustainment. This naval facility, along with its existing facility in Djibouti gives China a solid security footprint on the African continent. While the U.S. national security establishment is concerned with China’s new Atlantic operations capability, it should be noted that Equatorial Guinea is 7000 miles from the U.S. eastern seaboard. – M.M.)
EUROPE: President’s Biden and Putin will hold a call tomorrow to discuss Ukraine. This will be a key test of U.S. resolve on Ukraine and Russia is likely looking for any indication of hesitance. President Biden said in a recent press conference the U.S. would give Ukraine the tools to secure its borders, without committing U.S. troops explicitly. Meanwhile, U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance flights over the Black Sea region are increasing in frequency. The U.S. estimates Russia will invade in early 2022, consistent with Ukraine’s own public assessments. (AC: President Biden is unlikely to deter Putin in tomorrow’s talks, as the world recognizes our weak political leadership provides the opportunity to upset the international order. Without strong public commitments from U.S. leaders, NATO is unlikely to act in a unified manner, allowing Russia to exploit the lack of unity across the alliance and accomplish its goals in Ukraine. U.S. weakness in Europe will likely embolden Chinese provocations in the Pacific. – D.M.)
HOUSE COMPROMISED: Senate Majority Leader Schumber (D-NY) is blocking an amendment in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act which would ban the import of products made using slave labor in China. He is blocking the measure based on a potential protest from the House Ways and Means Committee for violating the revenue generating clause of the Constitution, despite the Congressional Budget Office rejecting that claim. Sen. Schumer (D-NY) said, “It’s unfortunate that this misguided demand of a single Republican senator is preventing this important legislation to support our national security from moving in the Senate.” (AC: The inability of the Democratic controlled legislature to pass this amendment is a strong indicator the Chinese have compromised key individuals in Congress. Their expert use of lobbyist organizations and quiet “diplomacy” created a situation in which Far Left politicians will destroy their own history and culture for concerns over racism and slavery, but tacitly approve it in China. This is another sign of U.S. political weakness, pointing to a probable loss in future kinetic conflict with China as the Congress is responsible for declarations and funding of wars. – D.M.)
HAZARDS/WX:
In today’s Early Warning, Mike gives his take on the Patriot Front march. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe