Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Wednesday, 29 September 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Senate grills Austin and Milley; raises questions for Biden
- Ford finds semiconductors in supply chain
- Russian propaganda shut down by Google
- Housing prices continue double-digit increases
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DEFENSE: Defense officials, including; Secretary of Defense Austin, Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Milley, and CENTCOM commander Gen. McKenzie testified in the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday. During the marathon hearing, Senators grilled Gen. Milley for his phone calls with Chinese military officials during the presidential transition in early 2021. Lawmakers pointedly examined the Defense Department’s role in exiting Afghanistan as well as reports of security cooperation with the Russians on Central Asian counterterrorism efforts. Senators from the Foreign Relations Committee issued a letter to Secretaries Austin and Blinken citing statutory violations if military cooperation with Russia (Public Law 114-328 and 116-283) occurs. (AC: A bipartisan group of Senators forced the Pentagon to admit the withdrawal from Afghanistan was based on “a range of options” and no uniformed witness advocated for a complete withdrawal. This directly contradicts President Biden’s public statements, setting up a continued political struggle over the withdrawal. Further, the U.S. is explicitly prohibited from working with the Russian military following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Military cooperation in Central Asia risks a “business as usual” relationship with Russia, effectively abandoning security commitments to Ukraine as the U.S. plays both sides. – D.M.)
SEMICONDUCTORS: Automaker Ford has seen its supply of semiconductors slightly increase, according to CEO Jim Farley. Q3 vehicle production was greater than the amount produced during Q2, yet Farley expects semiconductor shortages to last well into 2022. On a side note, Ford is funding the construction of two mega-sites in Tennessee and Kentucky to serve as a headquarters for building electric trucks and batteries. Ford is spending $11.4 billion and expects to create 6,000 jobs. (AC: Predictions for chipmakers to see an average supply level extended into 2023. Chip production has not significantly improved, and given the conditions in China, which include a crackdown on the tech sector, lack of electricity, economic uncertainty, and supply chain shortcomings, it would come without much excitement to learn that in Q4, businesses like Ford produced less finished goods that require semiconductors than they initially expected. -T.W.)
PROPAGANDA: Two German-language versions of the Russian state-sponsored RT were removed from YouTube for spreading pandemic disinformation. A Kremlin spokesman said, “Considering the nature of the incident, which is fully in line with the logic of the information warfare unleashed against Russia, taking symmetrical retaliatory measures against the German media in Russia would seem not just an appropriate, but also a necessary thing to do.” NATO and German government officials said a massive amount of Russian propaganda surrounding Germany’s recent elections was targeting would-be voters. Reducing Russian access to Western information environments is a positive step toward combatting disinformation. (AC: This signals likely cooperation between Google and at least one NATO-aligned counter-influence organization. Google is facing fines of less than $50,000 and will likely ignore Russian demands as Western media outlets are routinely censored with no recourse. For a number of years, Russia’s RT outlets accounted for the largest share of content by a single outlet, primarily used to deliver propaganda to foreign audiences. – D.M.)
HOUSING: Prices in the housing market continue to increase. Data released for July of this year marks the fourth month in a row for double-digit increases, with price gains on a year-over-year basis reading 19.7%. Phoenix felt the most significant rise across America with a 32.4% YoY increase in price. With a sharp dropoff in available home inventory, down 13.4% over the past 12 months, and increases to inflation now totaling a consumer expectation of 5.2% for 2021, it becomes clear why prices have increased so dramatically. (AC: Home equities have increased by over $1.9 trillion since the onset of the pandemic, with homeowners seeing an average of 19.2%, or $30,000, in price rises to their homes. Driving this is the lack of supply and severely increased demand for homes. Mortgage rates have plummeted, meaning that first-time homebuyers have gotten the rare opportunity to purchase a home for cheaper than they would have before the pandemic. Similarly, homeowners are reluctant to sell because of economic uncertainty as a result of COVID. Homeowners are also holding out on selling their homes because values continue to increase so significantly. -T.W.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Life-threatening surf conditions and swells are expected on the U.S. coast this weekend, but Hurricane Sam is not expected to make landfall in the continental United States. According to the National Hurricane Center, the two areas of low pressure are continuing to move slowly across the Atlantic. The more western system is on track to dissipate or consolidate with the stronger storms to the east and continue building momentum throughout the week.
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