Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Thursday, 16 September 2021. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Yellen says U.S. out of funds in October
- Australia to receive nuclear submarines
- Census Bureau wants vaccine info
- Minnesota judge blocks “defund” effort
- Record number of ships stuck in Los Angeles
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
YELLEN: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congressional leadership the U.S. will run out of money in October. Pending debt-limit negotiations in Congress are concerning to the Treasury as the now-expired temporary suspension left little room for additional spending. “Once all available measures and cash on hand are fully exhausted, the United States of America would be unable to meet its obligations for the first time in our history,” Yellen said. Top-line numbers in ongoing legislative negotiations in the House and Senate will be the likely determinant in the debt-ceiling fight. (AC: Moderate Democrats and Republicans have significant leverage to negotiate with the Progressives over spending priorities as growing consumer fears of inflation and reckless government action are unlikely to be assuaged should the 1 October deadline not be met.- D.M.)
ALLIANCE: During a joint press statement, President Biden announced a trilateral security agreement with the United Kingdom and Australia (AUKUS). The new agreement will deliver a nuclear submarine fleet to Australia, utilizing U.S. vessels and advisors from the UK. Other security exchanges include Tomahawk missiles, artificial intelligence technologies, and cyber warfare capability exchanges. All three national leaders emphasized the submarines would be conventionally armed and no leader took questions following the announcement. (AC: In a clear message to China, the expanded defense agreements mark a substantial orientation by AUKUS toward mitigating Chinese aggression. The likelihood of Australia’s new fleet remaining nuclear weapons-free is low as China is expected to respond harshly to this announcement as Pacific tensions continue rising. – D.M.)
CENSUS: The Commerce Department and Census Bureau are updating their information collection requirements. A new version of the Household Pulse pandemic impact survey will ask citizens which brand and how many doses of vaccines they have received. Further information on unemployment benefits and insurances will be requested from a few million households. (AC: These information gathering operations typically precede an Executive action or broad public messaging campaign to achieve some end. The new survey results are expected at the end of October, indicating an Executive action or policy announcement in the winter. Reading between the lines, the pressure campaign against unvaccinated individuals will continue as well as a likely expansion of unemployment benefits related to the pandemic. – D.M.)
POLICE: The Minnesota Supreme Court will decide a dispute over a proposed ballot initiative to defund police departments. Hennepin County Judge Jamie Anderson said the initiative’s wording is “unreasonable and misleading.” The measure would have police departments replaced with a “department of public safety” without defining what that means for residents. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) said, “The people had a vision for what they wanted, and there’s a judge, there’s a mayor, there is a police chief, and their monied friends who are telling us we can’t have a city that is flexible to our needs and to our demands. How else are we supposed to make progress if we can’t do that?” (AC: The ultimate ruling on this initiative will have broader impacts for communities across the nation who attempt to defund or restructure their police departments according to a Far Left vision. The proposed department would still contain uniformed law enforcement officers, making this entire venture an exercise in ideological exploitation with limited changes in community engagement. – D.M.)
VESSELS: Heavy congestion persists in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach with 61 vessels anchored or drifting in the San Pedro Bay. Port management officials are expanding the Vessel Traffic Service area from 25 miles to 80 miles in order to accommodate the growing number of ships waiting to dock. Some vessels have been drifting or anchored for weeks as continued shortages of dock workers, truck drivers, and limited warehouse storage are blamed for the decreased processing rate. The Port of LA’s director said container dwell time “has reached its peak since the surge began.” (AC: The ongoing logistics constraints show no signs of relief throughout the remainder of 2021. Increased shipping rates, regardless of delays, are being passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices. Expect continued decreased availability in items manufactured overseas as port congestion and disruptions globally remain persistent issues. – D.M.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is expected to drift north as it dissipates, but Flash Flood Watches are in effect along the central Gulf Coast from portions of southeast Louisiana, across southern Mississippi and Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle. According to the National Hurricane Center, Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning over the eastern portion of a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. They estimate a tropical depression will form as the storm systems consolidate and move up the Atlantic coast in the next 48 hours.
In today’s Early Warning, the co-chief investment officer of the country’s largest hedge fund encourages investment outside the United States. Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe