Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Wednesday, 09 February 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Delta petitions for new “no fly” list
- Congress to begin insider threat training
- U.S. LNG surplus drives costs negative
- Budget impasse impacts defense
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- Russia-NATO SITREP: RUSSIAN LANDING CRAFT ARRIVE, UKRAINE SECURES DRONE CONTRACT, DIPLOMACY REMAINS INEFFECTIVE
- Indo-Pacific SITREP: CHINA LOCKS DOWN ALUMINUM PRODUCTION, BALOCH INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT TARGETS CHINA BELT AND ROAD IN PAKISTAN
- LIC Summary/ INTSUM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
DELTA PETITIONS DOJ FOR FEDERAL “NO FLY” LIST: The Delta Airlines CEO is petitioning the Attorney General to push for a federal “no-fly” list for unruly passengers. The CEO stated that he welcomed the increase in enforcement and prosecutions for disruptive passengers; however, designating unruly passengers on a “no-fly” list would be necessary to keep that person from flying on any commercial air carrier. (Analyst Comment: Instances of unruly passengers on airlines are rare. The top concern to implement a “no-fly” list is due to refusals to comply with masking requirements. Delta has placed almost 1,900 people on their “no-fly” list and has submitted more than 900 banned names to the TSA to pursue civil penalties. – D.F.)
HOUSE TO BEGIN INSIDER THREAT TRAINING: The House Sergeant at Arms is implementing new insider threat training. The program will assist staff and members in identifying “at risk” personnel who may leak sensitive information. One lawmaker decried a proposal to enhance screening of Congressional hires, saying “it’s none of their (Capitol Police) damn business.” (AC: Substantially enhancing security measures for nominal threats indicates a heightened paranoia inside the government. The continual national guard activations, erecting of barriers around Capitol facilities, and the White House indicts the notion that the government is in control of a stable society. The continual hardening of D.C.’s security apparatus around politicians is a tacit acknowledgment of the emerging low intensity conflict in the U.S. – D.M.)
U.S. LNG SURPLUS TO EUROPE DRIVE COSTS NEGATIVE: The U.S. is currently sending a surplus of liquid natural gas (LNG) higher than current requirements or demand. The shipments have been redirected from Asia to Europe, and the quantity of surplus has driven transportation costs negative. Allied countries, such as Japan, have been reported to also allocate some of its LNG quantities to Europe if Russia were to enter Ukraine. (AC: The LNG market is poised with excess capacity to provide for Europe when Russia invades Ukraine. While current surpluses limit profitability for companies, the U.S. perception of the likelihood of incursion is high enough to justify it. Future energy disruptions by Russia will have less impact if the energy sharing plan succeeds. – D.F.)
BUDGET IMPASSE IMPACTS DEFENSE: The Pentagon’s continued operation under continuing resolutions is impacting defense spending. Due to carryover rules from 2021, the Pentagon is losing between $4-6 billion per month. As a result, the Army may be forced to cut modernization funding in addition to retiring weapons and vehicle systems. Congress authorized a 5% increase in overall defense spending but has yet to appropriate the funds to the services. (AC: The U.S. military may find itself unable to address emergent threats in Europe and Asia due to Congressional dysfunction. Legacy military programs slated for termination are selected based on conflict with a near-peer adversary, indicating the Pentagon understands its future conflicts. Malign actors will likely continue to leverage lobbyists and politicians to slow defense appropriations efforts as geopolitical conditions degrade. – D.M.)
HAZARDS/WX:
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