Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Tuesday, 18 January 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
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TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Voting bills likely to die in the Senate
- Hong Kong arrests flight attendants
- UK sends anti-tank weapons to Ukraine
- Forecasters predict higher oil prices
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- InFocus: Voting rights, legitimacy, and civil war
- LIC Summary/ INTSUM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
FAR LEFT’S LEGISLATIVE FAILS: Democrats continue to push “voting rights legislation” in the Senate, with no meaningful progress. Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) will attempt to rewrite Senate rules to pass legislation with a simple majority, while preserving the 60-vote filibuster. Democratic calls to “do something” are increasing in frequency and pitch. House Majority Whip Clyburn (D-SC) said, “If we do not protect the vote with everything that we’ve got, we will not have a country to protect going forward. I don’t know where we got the notion from, that this democracy is here to stay no matter how we conduct ourselves.” (Analyst Comment: The increased sense of Democratic desperation doesn’t occur in a vacuum. As the November elections draw near, expect increased electoral involvement from the Justice Department, FBI, and their private sector allies. – D.M.)
HONG KONG ARRESTS FLIGHT ATTENDANTS: Two flight attendants employed by Cathay Pacific airlines were arrested in Hong Kong over the weekend for conducting “unnecessary activities” while under medical surveillance. The two flight attendants had arrived in Hong Kong from the U.S. on December 24th and 25th. Immediately after their arrest, Cathay Pacific fired the two flight attendants. After being incarcerated the two tested positive for the Omicron virus and are now remanded to their homes under medical surveillance. Both have trials set for early February. (AC: This incident clearly demonstrates the risk that international travelers face when flying into Chinese held territories like Hong Kong or even mainland China. Draconian COVID restrictions, including arrest and incarceration in special COVID camps, will be applied to both Chinese nationals and foreigners alike. – M.M.)
UK SENDS ANTI-TANK WEAPONS TO UKRAINE: Over the weekend, multiple Royal Air Force C-17s delivered anti-tank and small arms to Ukraine. Notably, the aircraft flew around German airspace, indicating the Germans would not approve British weapons transfers to Ukraine. Separately, Russian consulates throughout Ukraine are beginning to send staff and families home. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is in Kyiv today to brief embassy staff on contingencies. (AC: The surprise shipments highlight fractured relationships in NATO, which the Russians continue to exploit. Germany’s Prime Minister Scholz called for a return to dialogue with Russia, something the Germans couldn’t be bothered with during last week’s unproductive “dialogue.” Expanded weapons shipments by NATO members to Ukraine will be seen as escalatory action in Moscow, pushing the region closer to war. – D.M.)
FORECASTERS PREDICT HIGHER OIL PRICES: Oil prices reached its highest peak since 2014. Forecasts predict higher prices soon as demand is outpacing current production. Some predictions show a 10% increase from current prices by mid-2022 and a 20% increase by 2023. Oil producers in the U.S. are calling for increasing production faster to help control impacts from inflation. Security concerns of oil production vulnerabilities exposed in yesterday’s drone attacks in the U.A.E. highlight how estimates might be worse than expected depending on national security threats in 2022. (AC: High demand, inflation, and supply chain disruptions are key factors driving oil prices higher. Spare oil capacity from leading nations is on track to reach historic lows by the summer. With the potential for geopolitical conflicts in the future, there are concerns that such disruptions can peak prices higher than current estimates. – D.F.)
HAZARDS/WX:
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