Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 31 January 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Government warns of increase in domestic terrorism indicators
- Progressives pivot toward economy
- China’s ambassador warns U.S. of conflict over Taiwan
- Cybersecurity vulnerabilities in Pentagon weapons programs
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- Russia-NATO SITREP: RUSSIA TALKS STALL, UK PREPARES TROOP DEPLOYMENTS
- Indo-Pacific SITREP: NORTH KOREA MISSILE TESTS CONTINUE; CHINA LOCKS DOWN BEIJING AMONG COVID OUTBREAK
- LIC Summary/ INTSUM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
GOVERNMENT WARNS OF INCREASE IN DOMESTIC TERRORISM INDICATORS: The National Counterterrorism Center has released a document outlining the mobilization indicators for US violent extremists. The information is part of a new “see something, say something” campaign intended to get the public engaged in the new focus on domestic terrorism by teaching indicators around mobilization to violence, engaging in preparation, and developing extremist motivations. The document lists 42 potential indicators that encompass a wide range of tactics, ideology, intent, travel, finances, and relationships. (Analyst Comment: The public push is based on the understanding that the government needs tips from the public to find potential suspects. While concern for mobilized extremist groups is part of their focus area, comments from the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) indicate that potential lone actors are a significant security gap that cannot be filled with the limited resources available. – D.F.)
PROGRESSIVES PIVOT TO ECONOMY: House Democrats return to Washington this week prepared to push economic reforms from President Biden’s Build Back Better Act. Rep. Jayapal (D-WA) said progressives are trying to “jumpstart the negotiation” in reference to Sen. Manchin’s (D-WV) continued rejection of a $1.7 trillion domestic spending initiative. At-risk moderate Democrats are now bringing up inflation as a concern in future spending proposals, likely in an attempt to change public perception of their role in the rising cost of goods across the U.S. (AC: Democrats appear to have given up on “voting rights” as the calendar tightens to pass the President’s domestic spending initiatives while also having to confirm Justice Breyer’s replacement. Expect increased cooperation from U.S. companies, politicians, and media entities to promote “doing your part” in continued social spending programs during the lead-up to the midterms. – D.M.)
CHINA’S AMBASSADOR TO U.S. WARNS OF MILITARY CONFLICT OVER TAIWAN: In an interview with U.S. news outlet NPR on Friday, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S. warned of a military conflict over Taiwan. In his first interview since assuming the post, Ambassador Qin Gang stated “If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in a military conflict.” During the interview Gang added that U.S. ideas about China becoming more democratic through economic engagement with the west “were always an illusion.” (AC: The statement by Ambassador Gang was unusually blunt. Normally, Chinese authorities use indirect threats of military confrontation over Taiwan. His comment about Taiwan “seeking independence” was likely a synonym for resisting China’s calls for reunification. – M.M.)
CYBER GAPS IN DOD WEAPONS: The office of the Pentagon’s chief weapons tester found that only 9% of programs it reviewed in fiscal year 2021 were “survivable without any caveats”. Fifty-five percent of programs tested had mixed results and 26% were determined to be “not survivable”. This drop in survivability rating contrasts with previous years with previous “survivable without any caveats” percentages ranging from 25-50% since 2016. The significant drop is primarily due to cybersecurity vulnerabilities with secondary vulnerabilities seen in the electromagnetic spectrum. (AC: Increasing technological dependencies is exposing the military to more cyber-attack vectors in their equipment. Newer technology is proving to be a double-edged sword with near-peer adversaries increasing their capabilities to target weak points in our military power. – D.F.)
HAZARDS/WX:
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