Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Tuesday, 05 April 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- New migrant caravans to U.S. border begin
- U.S. tries to expel Russia from Human Rights Council
- New round of Western sanctions
- Record number of U.S. police shot in Q1 2022
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- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
NEW MIGRANT CARAVANS TO US BORDER BEGIN: Stepping off last Friday, “hundreds of migrants” in Tapachula, Mexico, near the Guatemalan border, are headed toward the United States. At least 170,000 remain in the immediate vicinity of the U.S. border, while DHS estimates there could be 18,000 or more arrivals per day starting on 23 May. (Analyst Comment: Migrants in the border area will likely attempt to enter the US before the post-Title 42 surge develops, but the groundswell from Central America is well underway. State-backed malign actors could use the May window to infiltrate the U.S. for intelligence or other special operations. The continued border failures will further degrade faith in U.S. institutions, sovereignty, and call into question the national government’s capabilities. – D.M.)
U.S. TRIES TO SUSPEND RUSSIA FROM U.N. HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL: U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that the U.S. would ask the UN Nations General Assembly to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. The moves come after Russian troops are accused of killing dozens of civilians in the town of Bucha. Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated that Russia would present “empirical evidence” that Russian forces have not been killing civilians. (AC: The isolation campaign against Russia increases as the U.S. attempts to erode morale standing around the world. Such efforts are also aimed to compel China to put political distance away from Russia by making the Chinese government guilty by association. – D.F.)
NEW ROUND OF WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA: The U.S. and Europeans are expected to announce new sanctions against Russian purchases or access to jet fuel, steel products, and luxury goods. Russian farmers are already turning to domestic fertilizer producers as the international market is difficult to access. (AC: The West is running out of things to sanction in Russia, which Moscow calls economic warfare. While the Russian economy may take years to recover, the Russians are unlikely to “allow” the U.S. to engage in regime change by economic pressure. – D.M.)
RECORD NUMBER OF U.S. POLICE SHOT IN 1Q 2022: The National Fraternal Order of Police is reporting that as of this month, 101 officers have been shot in the line of duty. This marks a 46% year-to-date (YTD) increase from 2021 and a 63% YTD increase from 2020. The report notes a significant increase in ambush-style attacks. A 2017 report from the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) concluded that ambush-style murder attempts are rooted in a “singular narrative that portrays the officer as guilty in traditional and social media and the subject as the victim” (AC: Increasing murder attempts against police does not indicate future stability. Police officers shot in the line of duty have been steadily increasing since 2019. Evaluating your local security gaps is becoming more important, especially as we get closer to election season. Understanding your dependencies on law enforcement response will help determine the best courses of action if we see local riots like in 2020. – D.F.)
This week’s High Side briefings:
Tuesday: China conspiring with U.S. police
Wednesday: Evolving drug trade in North America
Thursday: Economic Early Warning
Friday: Early Warning Roundtable
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