Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Tuesday, 01 February 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
ADMIN NOTE: In yesterday’s DailySA, we reported on a document of extremist mobilization indicators published by the National Counterterrorism Center. That document is available in the Forward Observer Library for subscribers. Access it by logging in here: https://forwardobserver.com/library/
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Support grows for violence against government
- New Chinese Anti-Satellite Capability
- Super PACs manufacturing consent
- CISA pushes governors on state cybersecurity
- Great Powers take on energy supplies
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- InFocus: How Civil Wars Start: Conclusions
- LIC Summary/ INTSUM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
MORE POLLING SHOWS POLITICAL VIOLENCE SUPPORT: A recent survey covering all 50 states has published its findings on American views for committing violence against the government. Key findings show that 23% of Americans say it is “definitely” or “probably” justified to ever engage in violent protests against the government. Of those justifying government violence, two-thirds say the federal government is the appropriate target. Thirty-five percent think their state government is the appropriate target. Twenty percent answered that another state government is a justified target, with 21% targeting local governments. The results found that the demographic most likely to support this behavior is young men on the far end of either political spectrum. (Analyst Comment: Academic polling data continues to support the federal government’s concern regarding domestic extremist activity. With violence seen as a justified tool along political lines, domestic violence from protests and riots is likely to be tied to election seasons. – D.F.)
NEW CHINESE ANTI-SATELLITE CAPABILITY: China’s Shijian-21 space debris mitigation satellite docked with a defunct Chinese satellite and repositioned in a new geostationary orbit. This space operation demonstrated capabilities only previously exhibited by the United States. Reports from space researchers indicate Shijian-21 has repeatedly conducted rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO) with other objects in the geostationary orbit belt since its launch in October last year. Shijian-21 docked with the defunct Beidou-2 G2 navigation satellite and towed it above the belt of geostationary orbit some 36,000 kilometers over the equator. (AC: The capability to dock with orbiting satellites and reposition them or destroy them is seen as both a good and bad development. It is good to be able to clean up the orbit field by removing defunct satellites, but could be a bad thing that China now also has the capability to remove U.S. satellites from orbit without polluting the orbit field with debris from a kinetic anti-satellite weapon. This new capability poses a potential threat to commercial U.S. communications and navigation systems in daily use by ordinary Americans. – M.M.)
SUPER PACS MANUFACTURING CONSENT: Political Action Committee Priorities USA spent $30 million on digital advertising for voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The political action committee is just one of numerous groups attempting to improve the President’s favorability ratings nearly ten months out from the midterm elections. The Priorities USA chairman said, “We have to raise the stakes of the election, talk about what role they play in that election, and we have to give them the tools to vote.” Citing the lack of former President Trump on the ballot, Democratic operatives are concerned too many people have “tuned out of politics, and our job is to now tune them back in creative ways.” (AC: “Doing your part” will remain a consistent theme in midterm election political advertising, despite lack of popular support for Build Back Better and federalizing elections. Expect a three-pronged effort from media, private companies, and political activists to “manufacture consent” for controversial legislation prior to the election in an attempt to secure power despite expected midterm losses for the Left. I recommend increasing your scrutiny of social media advertising in the coming months as advocacy efforts ramp up and are often exacerbated by foreign election influence efforts. – D.M.)
CISA PUSHES GOVERNORS ON STATE SECURITY: At the National Governors Association winter meeting in Washington, Cybersecurity Infrastructure and Security Agency (CISA) Director Jean Easterly pushed for cybersecurity practices adoption by states. The focus was on replacing legacy technology, moving toward secure cloud services, and adopting multi-factor authentication across all sectors to cut down the risk of cyberattacks. Director Easterly cited a 2019 Microsoft study which found that requiring users to supply additional credentials prevented almost 100% of compromises (AC: This push for adopting cybersecurity verification standards by states is part of the U.S. strategy for securing the Homeland’s critical infrastructure. CISA leadership is flexing its approach to be a supporting role with state and local entities on the front line. Vulnerabilities on critical infrastructure from a Russian cyberattack have exposed the need for cyber resiliency to negotiate from a position of strength. – D.F.)
GREAT POWERS TAKE ON ENERGY SUPPLIES: Russian media is pushing an announcement from state-owned Gazprom over dwindling European natural gas stores. According to the latest release, the continent has 39% or less of its winter storage facilities filled. Coinciding with the announcement, Gazprom made no February booking for the Yamal pipeline through Poland after reversing flows in December ‘21. In an apparent effort to stem the coming energy disruption, President Biden said, “I am notifying Congress that I will designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally to reflect the importance of our relationship.” (AC: Gazprom’s increased public mockery of Europe’s energy supplies are likely part of a broader Russian information operations campaign to divide NATO members along their most sensitive vulnerabilities. Qatar remains the number one natural gas producer globally. The U.S. is attempting to convince Qatar to bolster its production and potentially violate contracts with Asian countries to maintain gas supplies to Europe. The increased frequency of these announcements indicates anticipated energy disruptions in Europe, regardless of a renewed invasion of Ukraine. – D.M.)
HAZARDS/WX:
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