Good morning. Here’s your Situational Awareness for Wednesday, 14 September 2022.
U.S. READIES SANCTIONS AGAINST CHINA?: The Biden administration is reportedly in talks on preemptive sanctions on China in order to deter military action against Taiwan, according to unnamed sources in a Reuters report. The White House declined to comment on the report, but did not dispute it. – M.M.
INDIA PASSES ON BIDEN’S INDO-PAC ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK: India was the only country to not agree to the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) proposals last week. India’s commerce minister said he wasn’t sure how India would benefit from the framework, which included proposals on trade, green energy, supply chains, and taxes. – M.S.
RET. U.S. GENERAL “COLLAPSE OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN 4-5 YEARS”: Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges warned that the world needs to prepare for the collapse of the Russian Federation “as we know it” within four to five years. Hodges claims that sanctions, military losses, and corruption are factors likely to cause the failure of Russian energy and arms exports, which represent central parts of the Russian economy, setting the foundation for a potential Russian balkanization. – R.P.
U.S. REVEALS RUSSIAN POLITICAL INFLUENCE OPERATIONS: The U.S. State Department publicly released a diplomatic cable it sent to American embassies and consulates in Europe, Africa, and South Asia containing an intelligence estimate detailing extensive political influence operations carried out by Russian Intelligence services. According to the U.S. Intelligence community, the Russian government has spent more than $300 million in attempts to influence politicians and elections in more than 24 countries since 2014, including the American elections in 2016 and 2020, using front companies to funnel money to causes and preferred politicians in what one U.S. official called an “assault on sovereignty.” The document also revealed the U.S. would be providing classified information to select countries on specific ongoing Russian operations in the near future. – R.P.
UKRAINE ADVANCES SECURITY TREATY PROPOSAL: The Kyiv Security Treaty proposed by the Ukrainian government seeks bilateral security guarantees and strategic partnerships with more than 50 countries. The proposed security alliance would include direct military support from core NATO countries and non-military support from a broader group of countries. – R.P.
PHILIPPINES RAMPS UP ANTI-CHINA PROTESTS UNDER NEW PRESIDENT MARCOS: Despite an initial China-friendly position from the new Philippine presidential administration of Ferdinand Marcos, Manila has lodged 52 diplomatic protests against Chinese incursions into Philippine waters in the last 70 days. The protests are mostly oriented towards illegal fishing by Chinese fishing vessels but also include unlawful maritime scientific research for oil and gas deposits. Last week, Philippine government officials offered the U.S. military access to its military bases should conflict break out with China in the South China Sea. – M.M.
In today’s Early Warning, Mike examines how election laws are changing in three states and how they’ll unfairly affect the November midterms, plus, the team provides expanded analysis on today’s DailySA items and a number of domestic issues, including the latest on the railroad worker strike. Get access to the full Early Warning here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe