Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Monday, 11 July 2022.
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- READ TIME: 3 min 29 seconds
- Russia-NATO INTSUM
- Indo-Pacific INTSUM
- Geopolitical INSTUM
NATO-RUSSIA INTSUM
RUSSIA TO RETALIATE AGAINST LITHUANIA: Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said her country will retaliate if Lithuania continues to block supply deliveries to Kaliningrad. “If the situation does not stabilize in the coming days, then Russia will take harsh measures against Lithuania and the European Union,” she said. “The issue has taken too long to resolve.” Zakharova’s comments come as Russian President Putin held a call with Belarus’ Lukashenko over a potential joint response to “illegal restrictions imposed by Lithuania.” – D.M.
U.S. SENDING MORE HIMARS TO UKRAINE: The U.S. is sending four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) as part of a $400 million aid package. Ukraine will also receive an additional 1,000 rounds of 155mm GPS-guided artillery ammunition. With the first delivery of HIMARS, Ukrainian forces are finding success in destroying and degrading Russian munitions facilities and deliveries. – D.M.
RUSSIA ‘QUIETLY MOBILIZING’ NEW SOLDIERS: Job postings across Russian employment centers indicate a “quiet mobilization” for the war effort in Ukraine. Over 22,000 contract soldier positions are open, with several referencing wartime mobilization tasks and activities to be carried out during a national emergency. These job postings are consistent with recent actions by Russia’s Duma to get the economy positioned to directly support a war effort. – D.M.
US-CHINA/INDO-PACIFIC INTSUM
SRI LANKA CABINET DUE TO STEP DOWN, PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER EXPECTED TO RESIGN TODAY: As mobs of Sri Lankan citizens roamed the streets of its capital Colombo, its entire government is set to resign over the collapse of the nation’s economy and governing institutions. Sri Lankans stormed the presidential palace on Sunday and forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee into hiding. Protesters also burned the home of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe are expected to resign today. The political and economic chaos is the result of global inflation combined with excessive government spending and failed green agricultural policies which have left the country bankrupt and unable to provide food or fuel to its citizens. – M.M.
JAPAN RULING COALITION SET TO WIN ELECTION: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to keep its majority in the upper house of parliament in an election in which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also an LDP member, was assassinated. Analysts expected the LDP to pick up a major bump from the assassination. The LDP’s major platform item was a promised increase to more than 2 percent of GDP for defense spending in order to counter Chinese threats to its territory. – M.M.
U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE MEETS WITH CHINESE COUNTERPART AT G20: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday at the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia. Both diplomats described the meetings as “candid.” Blinken raised concerns over Beijing’s alignment with Moscow and support for its war in Ukraine. Blinken reportedly warned Wang that China would suffer serious consequences over its “no limits” partnership with Russia, while Wang said that the direction of U.S.-China relations was in danger of being further led “astray” due to a problem with the United States’ perception of China. He added that “Many people believe that the United States is suffering from an increasingly serious bout of ‘Chinaphobia’.” – M.M.
GEOPOLITICAL INTSUM
IRAN ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF RUSSIAN TRANSPORT CORRIDOR TO INDO-PACIFIC: Last week, Russian logistics company RZD Logistics completed its first transport of Russian goods via container trains from Russia to India through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The shipments were facilitated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line Group (IRISL). The INSTC links the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and is designed to become a major international shipping route for Indo-Russian trade. – M.M.
RUSSIA BLINKS ON KAZAKH PIPELINE: Russian courts ordered the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to cease operations for 30 days, potentially impacting 1% of the world’s oil supply. After a back and forth, the Russian court rescinded the stop work order and instead levied a 200,000 ruble ($3,084) fine against the pipeline operator for safety violations. – D.M.
ARGENTINA GETTING SPICY: Protests were building over the weekend in Argentina as Argentine President Alberto Fernandez called for unity in the face of soaring inflation and increasing levels of poverty. Argentina is suffering under 60% inflation and crushing sovereign debt that has resulted in tighter economic policies at home. Argentina restructured a $44 billion debt deal with the IMF earlier this year and many Argentinians blame the IMF for their financial woes. Thousands of protesters on the streets of its capital Buenos Aires marched on Saturday afternoon with banners saying “breakaway from the IMF” and “Out, Fund, out”. Marchers criticized the government and called for debt payments not to be made. – M.M.
IN TODAY’S EARLY WARNING: The team discusses the upcoming midterm fight for the House and June’s inflation outlook. You can get access to the daily Early Warning report here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe
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