Good morning. Here’s your Daily Situational Awareness for Thursday, 10 February 2022. You can receive this daily briefing by signing up at https://forwardobserver.com/daily-sa
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- U.S. troops in Europe for possible evacuation
- China’s COVID policy worsening global supply chain
- Canadian protesters and police shift tactics
- LA County to fire 4,000 sheriff staff
- Government distrusts itself on extremism
- Hazards Warning
UPGRADE TO EARLY WARNING AND GET THESE BRIEFINGS:
- In Focus: Plans for interest rates – Fed Presidents offer guidance
- Economic Warning INTSUM
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
U.S. TROOPS IN EUROPE FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION: Recent U.S. troop deployments to Poland and Germany were framed as a mission to reassure allies. Instead, a portion of the soldiers will be setting up camps, checkpoints, and refugee processing facilities. The U.S. is preparing to receive a few thousand U.S. citizens and tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees in Poland if conflict expands in Europe. (Analyst Comment: There is a grim contrast between the public reasoning for the deployment and the troops’ current mission. Establishing checkpoints and reception facilities indicated the U.S. believes conflict is likely. The Polish government likely agrees with the U.S. assessment as their approval was required for the deployment and construction operations. Russia’s snap exercises for the next ten days may mask invasion preparations as diplomatic negotiations remain unproductive. – D.M.)
CHINA’S COVID POLICY WORSENING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN: Beijing’s draconian zero-COVID policy is worsening global supply chain issues, says Japanese economic policy official Toyoaki Nakamura. Beijing’s continued lockdown of industrial centers in China is causing increasing shortages in critical industrial components and consumer goods which are impacting local economies in nations across the globe. A senior official at the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath, also warned that increasing supply chain disruptions could lead to rising inflation and central bankers would have to use “tighter monetary policy to avoid vast inflation rate rises.” She added that she was also concerned about “the high levels of debt servicing costs many low income countries have to pay.” (AC: Empty retail shelves and extended delays in orders for durable goods in the U.S. can be directly traced to a reduction in manufacturing in China due to its zero-COVID policy. Self-imposed transportation inefficiencies in the U.S. imposed by state and local officials, continue to contribute to China-driven supply chain issues. As supply disruptions begin to impact food distribution and U.S.-based manufacturing, expect peripheral issues such as rising inflation, stock market instability, civil unrest and authoritarian reactions to that unrest by U.S. security services. – M.M.)
CANADIAN PROTESTERS AND POLICE SHIFT TACTICS: Canadian police were seen shifting to more aggressive tactics this week by preventing protestors from obtaining fuel, food, and necessary supplies. Protestors have countered by walking with gas cans and walking to truckers who need it. Protesters have attributed the recent decision to relieve Covid restrictions in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia to their efforts. Both Canadian and U.S. officials have expressed concern for spreading protests in western nations with worries of continued disruption on already strained supply chain networks. (AC: Protestors are maintaining pressure on the government as the movement earns funding through alternative means. Expect the protest to continue as the movement calls for removal of the cross-border vaccine requirements and associated restrictions. – D.F.)
LA COUNTY TO FIRE 4000 SHERIFF STAFF: The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors voted 4-0-1 to fire 4000 staff from the sheriff’s department. In response, Sheriff Villanueva said the vote is a “suicide pact” with murders rising 94% and a hiring freeze in place. He called the move a “politically motivated stunt” that “will definitely harm public safety.” The vote follows a national trend of city officials and prosecutors refusing to support law enforcement and embrace alternative social programs in response to rising crime. (AC: As crime spikes in metropolitan areas, local governments’ refusal to enforce laws and support police is having a negative impact on public safety and local economies. Intensifying lawlessness is unlikely to be confined to cities, as criminals will seek targets of opportunity elsewhere. In light of the rising crime and low intensity conflict, take time to update your area study. Consider researching your local crime trends, laws, response times, and understand your rights as a citizen. – D.M.)
THE GOVERNMENT DISTRUSTS THE GOVERNMENT ON EXTREMISM: Government leaders are concerned about reports showing a rise in extremist groups’ recruits with current or prior military experience. According to leaked documents, 18 out of 87 applicants to a white supremacist group had current or former ties to the U.S. military. One member claimed to currently work within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The Pentagon has stated that military members are actively being recruited by extremist groups to increase their capabilities and perceived legitimacy. (AC: The reports build on growing concern over domestic extremists within the government. As the FBI investigates bomb threats at historically black colleges and universities, leaders are determining if stronger enforcement is necessary to counter the perceived growing trend of right-wing extremism. Expect more internal reviews and investigations within government agencies to increase to filter out extremist actors. – D.F.)
HAZARDS/WX:
Upgrade your Situational Awareness to Early Warning and continue the brief here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe