Good morning. Here’s your Early Warning for Friday, 12 November 2021.
TODAY’S BRIEFING:
- Increased European hostilities called “unsettling”
- Food shortages raise concerns of logistical crisis
- Biden and Xi to meet next week
- New terror warning focuses on domestic actors
- U.S. wants to expand intel sharing to combat China
- In Focus: Green energy as a geopolitical weapon
- Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
- Upcoming Event Calendar
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
“UNSETTLING”: The U.S. briefed NATO and European Union officials on Russian military movements near Ukraine and Belarus. In contrast to April’s military buildup, current Russian activity is largely done at night and away from the prying eyes of social media users. Calls between U.S., European, and Russian officials remain unproductive as the Kremlin asserts Western aggression in the Black Sea, Ukraine, and EU border regions. One EU official described the U.S. intelligence briefing as “unsettling.” Ukraine’s foreign minister believes the Belarusian border is “a potential frontline and shouldn’t be underestimated.” (AC: Deepening cooperation between Russian and Belarusian military assets provides Putin a less provocative avenue to strategically maneuver forces. Belarus’ Lukashenko is openly calling for a Russian military presence, saying, “There is no time for jokes. The situation is very serious there…[and] the Russians and Belarusians must jointly control this situation.” -D.M.)
FOOD: Rising food prices and supply chain shortages continue to ripple throughout the world. After experiencing rolling blackouts across the country due to coal shortages, China is now facing higher corn prices due to heavy rains and winter storms. China restricted coal exports, which has led to a shortage of urea in India and South Korea. Urea is commonly used in India as fertilizer, and higher costs will lead to higher food prices. South Korean truckers use urea to curb diesel emissions. “Prolonged shortages could spell a logistics crisis” such as a stoppage of trucks carrying imports from South Korean ports, warned one logistics firm. – M.S.
CHINA: President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are tentatively scheduled to meet on Monday to discuss a number of issues ranging from COVID response to trade and nuclear weapons. “Following the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, China stands ready to work with the United States to enhance exchanges and cooperation across the board,” reads a statement from the Chinese. (AC: Senior officials from the Chinese Communist Party just met at the Sixth Plenum, where party members will likely approve Xi’s third term and possibly anoint him president for life. Considering China continues to steal up to $600 billion of U.S. intellectual property each year, describing “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation” is diplo-speak with little basis in reality. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently warned American businesses not to share technology with Chinese-owned entities, but added if China really wants it, “the state will get it.” – M.S.)
TERROR THREAT: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued updated its National Terrorism Advisory System, providing insight to the department’s priorities. Threats from the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations are likely to remain “highly visible online” to inspire lone-wolf attacks in the U.S. Domestic Violent Extremist (DVE) groups remain the highest priority as “pandemic-related stressors have contributed to increased societal strains and tensions.” The department expects an increase in attacks from DVEs over public health restrictions, Afghan refugees, and anti-government sentiment. In response, DHS is “engaging industry partners to help them identify and respond to the spread of disinformation, conspiracy theories, and false narratives.” (AC: DHS continues to cite social media and encrypted messaging platforms as their biggest blindspot in mitigating foreign and domestic terror threats. The department’s actions are unlikely to have a measurable impact on preventing threats, but increased cooperation between the government and social media companies will induce further anti-government sentiment. – D.M.)
NINE EYES: Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) authored an amendment to the pending National Defense Authorization Act to expand U.S. intelligence sharing. Rep. Gallego wants to add Japan, Korea, India, and Germany to the “Five Eyes” program. The amendment says, “The committee acknowledges that the threat landscape has vastly changed… in confronting great power competition, the Five Eye countries must work closer together, as well as expand the circle of trust to other like-minded democracies.” Cyber Command’s Gen. Nakasone doesn’t want to expand the intelligence partnership and recommends new bilateral agreements to improve information sharing. (AC: India and Germany raise the most concern for information sharing as their military and economic relationships with Russia could jeopardize future operations. Approval of a “Nine Eyes” framework would likely push the U.S. and near-peer nations closer if China remains aggressive toward its neighbors. The U.S. likely believes Chinese incursions into India provide an opportunity to contain the communist nation, with proper materiel and intelligence support. – D.M.)
HAZARDS WARNING
HURRICANE SEASON: Nothing significant to report.
WX:
InFocus: Green energy as a geopolitical weapon
Following the Glasgow climate conference, a renewed sense of green-energy optimism is taking over the talking points of politicians, entertainers, defense officials, and commentators. Green energy advocates frame their argument for decreasing reliance on fossil fuels as an “existential crisis” that will destroy the planet between the late 1970s and 2030. The federal government and states are implementing new electric vehicle (EV) mandates, with many coming into effect by 2030. Beyond the domestic political machinations, China is interested in U.S. domestic energy policy formation as their manufacturing prowess provides massive market and influence opportunities.
The latest version of the “human infrastructure” bill incentivizes electric vehicle manufacturing, but only for unionized workers. Senator Manchin (D-WV) said, “When I heard about this, what they were putting in the bill, I went right to the sponsor (Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-MI), and I said, ‘This is wrong. This can’t happen. It’s not who we are as a country. It’s not how we built this country, and the product should speak for itself.” Manchin’s concern is an additional $4,500 tax credit if the vehicle is built under a union-negotiated collective bargaining agreement. Twenty-seven states currently have “right to work” laws, where employers cannot compel workers to join a labor union as part of their employment. Beyond the right to work concerns, not all auto manufacturers allow unions or utilize them in states otherwise allowed. General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis would benefit heavily from the proposal, whereas Toyota, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, BMW, and others would not receive the additional tax credits. Autos Drive America, representing non-union automakers, said, “Prioritizing among American auto workers creates an unlevel playing field that will limit consumer choice and punish non-unionized American workers, their families, and their communities.”
“This is wrong.” Sen. Manchin (D-WV) responds to proposed union tax credits. Credit: CQ
These energy policy changes are consistent with President Biden’s stated goal to be the most union-friendly administration in history. Providing an extra $4,500 (total $12,000) for every EV sold would certainly support that claim. During the 2020 election, union members voted for President Biden 16 points over former President Trump. Congressional Democrats are helping Biden accomplish his mission, stating the auto unions are responsible for creating the American middle class. Rather than becoming bogged down by concerns over favoritism, Democrats maintain they’re standing up for hard working Americans.
So what about generating the power? Currently, the U.S. bans imports of nearly all Chinese-made solar panels and components as the communist regime uses forced labor. An ongoing fight between the Commerce Department and the American Solar Manufacturers Against Chinese Circumvention (A-SMACC) could dramatically alter the green energy landscape. At heart, the A-SMACC wants its clients’ anonymity retained in any court proceedings as “proprietary information,” and the Commerce Department rejected the claim. U.S.-owned solar manufacturers believe if their company or critical personalities are revealed, they will face targeting and interference from Beijing. Of particular concern are companies in Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand that work with Chinese businesses. The A-SMACC accuses China of selling “unfairly subsidized goods and products below the costs of production.”
Now reliant on slave labor, Chinese solar producers consolidated nearly a decade ago. Credit: CEA
As the U.S. increases its dependence on electric vehicles and green energy sources in general, industries and legislators must navigate new geopolitical minefields. The Chinese understand the global shift away from fossil fuels and are more than willing to finance their military and social modernization by supplying the world’s “green materials.” The Commerce Department is unaware of China’s unrestricted warfare model, which leverages all instruments of the military, political, economic, and social power to supplant the United States as the global leader. China’s continued use of economic coercion and targeting of competitors may not rise to the level of hypersonic space flights, but it indicates the forward-looking grand strategy at play. The U.S. is preparing for 2030 while the Chinese look at the trillions in potential earnings by skirting global energy and economic regulators. -D.M.
LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT INTSUM
Far Left Activity Rollup & Outlook
MOUNTAIN
FUTURE
Denver, CO
Size: TBD
Activity: Mutual Aid Training conducted by Colorado Anarchist Federation at Platt Park. An Anarchism Propaganda film will be screened for the participants. All participants are expected to be masked up in accordance with Bloc techniques.
Location: Platt Park, 1501 S Logan St, Denver CO
Time: 1300 MST; Saturday, 13 NOV
EAST
FUTURE
Burns, TN
Size: TBD
Activity: Counter protest against the American Renaissance Conference, an annual American white nationalist conference that takes place in Burns, TN every year. The conference was originally set to take place in May 2021, but due to scheduling concerns and protests, it has been rescheduled to Nov 12-14.
Location: 1020 Jackson Hill Rd, Burns, TN 37029
Time: 0800 EST NOV 12 – 1700 EST 14 NOV
Hackensack, NJ
Size: TBD
Activity: Protest for the release of Patrick Julney at the Bergen County Jail. Previous protest for Patrick Julney obtained Julney’s deboarding from the deportation plane.
Location: Bergen County Jail, 160 S River St, Hackensack NJ.
Time: 1400 EST; Saturday, 13 NOV
Atlanta, GA
Size: TBD
Activity: Defend the Forest Atlanta will be conducting a Car Caravan to stop the construction and cancel the contract for the development of “Cop City” in Atlanta.
Location: Intrenchment Creek Park, Fayetteville Rd SE, Atlanta, GA 30316
Time: 0730 EST; Friday, 12 NOV
Upcoming Event Calendar
DD MONTH: Kyle Rittenhouse Verdict (Chicago Activist Coalition For Justice) (Chicago, Illinois)
— END REPORT
M.S. indicates analyst commentary from Mike Shelby
D.M. indicates analyst commentary from Dustin Mascorro
T.W. indicates analyst commentary from Troy Watson