Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Friday, 19 July 2024.
- SINO-RUSSIAN ASMD EXERCISE SHOWS CRITICAL FAULTS: China and Russia conducted an anti-ship missile defense (ASMD) live fire exercise this week using a Chinese Luyang III-class destroyer and a Russian Steregushchiy-class frigate.
- The Chinese destroyer fired surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to engage the missile while the Russian frigate engaged the missile-firing aircraft with “naval guns.”
Why It Matters: Overall, the Sino-Russian alliance is much more capable of joint operations than they were two years ago but retains critical failure points that will be exploited in any conflict with the West. This kind of complex exercise demonstrates a high level of coordination and communication between the Russians and the Chinese. However, the choice of engaging an aircraft with any of the guns on the Russian frigate shows a backward weapons prioritization as the guns will require an unacceptably close range when compared to its onboard SAMs. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- China is protesting a recent search and rescue exercise between a Taiwanese Coast Guard cutter and a Japanese Coast Guard patrol boat. (Bilateral Coast Guard search and rescue operations are routine and purely beneficial. China’s protest of benign interactions shows they are likely to purge the entirety of Taiwan’s uniformed forces rather than absorb them in a reunification scenario. – J.V.)
- In response to Donald Trump’s comment that Taiwan must pay the U.S. for its defense, Kuomintang (KMT) Chair Eric Chu said, “The Republic of China must rely on its own strength.” Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai of the Democratic Progressive Party responded to Trump by saying Taiwan is willing to take on more responsibility to defend itself because it will show the world they are serious about their own defense.
- South Korea’s President appointed Tae Yong-ho, a North Korean defector and former North Korean diplomat, to lead the Presidential Advisory Council. (This will be highly inflammatory to the North Koreans and may provoke a violent response, such as firing artillery over outlying islands. – J.V.)
- The European Union and Serbia signed a memorandum of understanding this morning that will allow for the excavation of an estimated two million tons of lithium. Germany intends to use the lithium to deeply cut its dependence on China.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.