Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Friday, 26 July 2024.
- REPORT: MEXICO TO IMPORT OIL BY 2030: Continued declines in Mexico’s crude oil output, which is now at a four-decade low, may force the country to import crude oil by 2030, according to energy ministry projections.
Why It Matters: Pemex, Mexico’s nationalized oil company, is notoriously corrupt, and its pipelines routinely fall victim to illegal tapping by organized crime rings who resell the fuel. Mexico’s president-elect is an environmentalist facing a harsh reality: about 20% of government revenues come from Pemex, so a deteriorating oil sector is another strategic problem for economic stability. – M.S.
- FBI DISCLOSES INT’L NORTH KOREA CYBER ESPIONAGE TARGETS: The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), U.K.’s National Cyber Security Council, South Korean National Intelligence Service, along with several other agencies from the same countries published a joint advisory on North Korea’s cyber espionage activities.
- The agencies say the North Koreans are targeting military vehicle manufacturing, nuclear research and processing facilities, numerous engineering sectors, and missile defense systems in the U.S., U.K., South Korea, Japan, India, and other unnamed countries.
- North Korea targets healthcare entities with ransomware to fund their operations.
- The advisory has an expansive list of vulnerabilities, cyber defense options, and Indicators of Compromise available for public use. ADVISORY
Why It Matters: Any successes by the North Koreans are likely to advance their defense industrial capabilities. These operations notably target the overseas friendshoring destinations in Japan and India, so there is potential for Sino-North Korean quid pro quo. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Mallory Stewart, Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, asserted yesterday in an interview that China is unwilling to negotiate on nuclear arms control due to the U.S. not matching China’s “No First Use” policy. She further explained that the U.S. has repeatedly explained it is unwilling to adopt China’s policy because the policy and China’s nuclear triad expansion contradict each other.
- Nippon Steel announced it is divesting from China’s Baosteel once its 20-year contract ends in August. Nippon intends to reinvest in U.S. and Indian steel companies. (The divestment and follow-on promise for investment in the U.S. is likely a move to encourage the U.S. government to approve the pending sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel. – J.V.)
- The Commander of the Australian Marine Rotational Force told U.S. government media that he had marines monitoring the Philippine and Chinese interactions at the Second Thomas Shoal via drone. He also announced that his Australian Marines were ready to resupply the Shoal, provide fire support coordination, guard locations, and deploy with the Philippine Marines. (The Philippines announced last week that they were exploring allied support in their resupply missions as exercises under the Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity agreement with Australia, the U.S., and Japan. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.