Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 08 July 2024.
- FRENCH ELECTION SHOWS A HOLLOWING MIDDLE ON IMMIGRATION: France’s leftist New Popular Front and Macron’s centrist party thwarted a National Rally majority.
- The leftist New Popular Front now holds the largest number of seats in the French Parliament, with the centrists in second and the National Rally in third.
- Compared to the 2022 election, the National Rally gained 53 seats, the National Popular Front gained 49 seats, the centrist party lost 86 seats, and the Republicans lost 25 seats. The National Rally and leftist parties gained similar ground between the 2017 and 2022 elections.
Why It Matters: Immigration is the central issue of this election. Without a resolution, repeated gains of non-centrist parties are likely the future of France and portend a hollowing middle. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Japan and the Philippines signed their Reciprocal Access Agreement this morning, allowing them to train and potentially station troops in each others’ territories. The Agreement is explicitly to counter China’s aggression in the South China Sea/ West Philippine Sea.
- Australia is hosting Exercise Pitch Black, an international large-scale air force exercise from 12 July to 02 August this year. Italy, Spain, and the Philippines will participate for the first time alongside longstanding participants from Australia, the U.S., Japan, Canada, France, India, and Korea. Exercises include international force integration, night flying, low altitude training, and more.
- American troops departed Niger’s main airbase in coordination with the Nigerien Defence Ministry, partially fulfilling Niger’s new junta’s orders from last year. The next phase, in August, will see the U.S. withdraw from a drone base used for counterterrorism missions in Africa.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.