Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 12 August 2024.
- MIDDLE EAST WAR INDICATORS: U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin disclosed on a phone call with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that he ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group to accelerate its arrival and for the USS Georgia, an Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, to the Middle East. (The Georgia can carry 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles.)
- Hezbollah reportedly evacuated all personnel from its headquarters in Beirut.
- A U.S. Intelligence Community assessment warns of an Iranian attack on Israel possibly before Thursday’s Israel-Hamas ceasefire. There are also concerns that Iran will escalate its April attack, opting for ballistic and cruise missiles fired from Iran along with other rocket and missile attacks from neighboring Lebanon and Syria.
- “China supports Iran’s defense of sovereign security and national dignity in accordance with the law,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi published in a readout of a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri.
- Global Rollup
- Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of trying to ‘improve its negotiating position’ through its Kursk offensive into Russian territory during a meeting this morning. Putin added that Ukraine is likely to seek further operations to destabilize the border region amid the evacuation of 11,000 residents in Belgorod due to ongoing Ukrainian operations.
- Belarus moved additional troops to its border and threatened to cease diplomatic relations with Ukraine after the Ukrainian Air Force entered Belarusian air space during the assault on Kursk, Russia. Ukraine is denouncing Belarus’ actions as “an attempt to help Putin and divert the attention of Ukraine’s command to this sector.”
- Two China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force jets conducted dangerous maneuvers and fired flares into the path of a Philippine Air Force NC-212I on 08 August. The Armed Forces of the Philippines publicized the event with video and statements on 10 August.
- China’s “large transport drone” conducted its maiden flight this weekend. The drone has a 2.2-ton payload capacity and is reportedly made for commercial use.
- Chinese firms are driving a surge in African lithium mining, growing African lithium output to 11% of global supply from 0% in 2020. New Chinese lithium mines are expected to come online in 2027, right as the global lithium supply passes a projected peak surplus, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. (Low lithium prices are keeping Western lithium firms from expanding, and the largest U.S.-based lithium producer, Albemarle, is asking governments to subsidize the industry to stay competitive with China. – R.C.)
- The Navy SEALs publicized an infiltration exercise with a submarine from earlier this summer. The exercise included meeting the submarine in the Pacific Ocean for a pickup, followed by infiltrating a target from the submarine. The article included potential use cases in a high-end war against Russia and China. (This capability is rarely talked about beyond the conceptual, so this is likely meant as a message to all Pacific nations that the U.S. is preparing for all aspects of war. – J.V.)
- Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin said that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economic alliance is “a real alternative” to the European Union and that he favors “considering very carefully all the possibilities” concerning BRICS. Meanwhile, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said a recent 25,000-person environmental protest was part of a pro-Western color revolution.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.