Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 14 August 2023.
- FIRST UP: Russia fires warning shots in Black Sea
- A Russian warship fired warning shots toward a civilian cargo ship transiting the Black Sea on Sunday. The vessel did not respond to radio calls and was headed north toward the Ukraine coast.
- This comes one day after Russia warned of severe retaliation for Ukraine’s failed attack on the Crimean bridge.
- Both Russia and Ukraine have said they would control civilian shipping in their areas of influence, including board and search operations.
Why It Matters: Russia has the upper hand in the Black Sea since it is the only country with an active navy operating there. Expect Russia to blockade the Ukraine coast and prevent commercial shipping from transiting to and from Ukrainian ports. This may result in a continued flux in grain prices globally as the market adjusts to weaker-than-expected Ukrainian exports. – M.M.
- CHINA: China angry over Taiwan VP visit to U.S.
- China reacted poorly to Taiwan Vice President and presidential front-runner William Lai’s visit to the U.S. on Sunday.
- China’s foreign ministry issued a terse statement saying it opposed any form of a visit by “Taiwan independence separatists” to the United States.
- The foreign ministry added that “China is closely following developments and will take resolute and vigorous measures to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Why It Matters: China is using specific language, like ”independence” and “separatists,” to discredit Taipei’s official relations with Washington. Those words are meant to identify Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party as the troublemaker in what would otherwise be a happy reunification process with mainland China. This modus operandi is meant to fit within the U.S. “one China” policy. Expect Beijing to focus on this track as it moves to greater coercive measures and political warfare, including covert support to the opposition Kuomintang political party, to repatriate Taiwan with the mainland. – M.M.
- SOUTHCOM: Right-wing candidate leads in Argentina election shock
- Right-wing populist presidential candidate Javier Milei shocked political observers yesterday by narrowly securing the top spot in Argentina’s primary elections.
- Milei continued to make waves last week by promising to reject BRICS membership if he becomes president and break off ties with China “because they are communists.”
Why It Matters: Argentina’s general election is scheduled for October and will likely head to a runoff election in November. Milei will run in a three-way race against another right-wing candidate, Patricia Bullard, and Sergio Massa, a left-wing candidate from the ruling Peronist party. Milei’s possible election would come around the time when BRICS approves Argentina’s addition to the economic alliance. Argentina last month signed an intent to purchase Indian military equipment, likely an effort to gain India’s approval to join BRICS+. Milei’s election would be a setback to BRICS. – M.S.
- PAKISTAN: Pakistani insurgents attack Chinese convoy
- Pakistani insurgent group Balochistan Liberation Army attacked a convoy of Chinese construction workers near the southern port of Gwadar on Sunday.
- The convoy was being escorted by a Pakistani military detachment.
- There were no reported Chinese casualties, although two insurgents were allegedly killed by Pakistani military forces.
Why It Matters: China is renewing its effort to complete the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a way to transport oil from the Arabian Gulf overland to China. Delays and insurgent attacks have plagued the project. Expect Beijing to pressure Islamabad to provide the necessary security to complete the project. It will likely leverage its latest round of financial assistance to ensure the required cooperation from the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment. – M.M.
- MEXICO: Ebrard: Wall between U.S. and Mexico “will fall”
- Former Mexican foreign minister and current leftist Morena presidential candidate Marcelo Ebrard attended a ceremony erecting a piece of the Berlin Wall next to the U.S. border wall outside Tijuana, Mexico.
- “It was placed next to the wall that separates us from the United States, which will also fall… I know those who promote the wall, their way of thinking and I know how we can handle them, how we can resist, but it is important to always have, as a primary cause, to fight for this wall to cease to exist,” Ebrard declared.
Why It Matters: Morena is expected to announce their presidential nominee for the 2024 election early next month. Ebrard will likely finish second to former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbuam for the Morena nomination but could again become Mexico’s foreign minister. Earlier this summer, Ebrard was in Florida to build a grassroots effort to oppose border wall politics and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ 2024 primary campaign – a clear act of foreign involvement in U.S. elections but one that came and went quietly. We reported on it at the time. – M.S.
DON’T MISS: Surprise is the enemy. With our Early Warning intelligence briefs, we help take away the element of surprise the future holds over us.
Each Friday, we produce a comprehensive risk and early warning analysis on disaster and disruption, helping you gain insight and turn uncertainty into certainty.
With Early Warning, you can join the small group of Americans who “saw it coming.”
If you enjoy the Global SITREP, then you’ll love the re-engineered format of Early Warning. Forewarned is forearmed.
Join us here:https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.