Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 21 October 2024.
- USN AND CONGRESS GET ADVICE ON DISRUPTING RUSSIA: The Wilson Center presented a report to Congressional staffers on Russia’s end-to-end artillery supply chain and how to disrupt it. One panelist recommended that Congress should target Russia’s imports.
- A staffer for Representative Austin Scott (R-GA) asked what Congress can do to “dismantle the enemy’s supply chain.” One of the presenters recommended simply buying all of the critical resources for ammunition production such as cotton pulp.
- When asked about which resource Congress should focus on first, the panelists recommended nitrocellulose “because it is the bottleneck in our ability to match the Russians on ammunition production.”
- A U.S. Navy Commander in uniform asked if there were examples of Russia’s industrial expansion in other defense sectors. Jack Watling, the lead panelist, said Russia remains focused on UAV, electronic warfare, air defense and armored vehicle production while it is disinvesting from its Navy.
Why It Matters: Russia is likely to see this as a form of military planning as Congressional staffers, including one from the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s office, and a uniformed U.S. Navy Information Warfare Officer actively participating in the discussion. At best, this just lengthens the war in Ukraine but it could also change Russia’s calculus on simply seizing regional assets or conducting a cyberattack on international payment systems. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Cuba’s electrical grid collapsed again on Sunday during attempts to restore power to the island nation. Chinese officials recently expressed their dissatisfaction that Cuba hasn’t adopted more market-oriented economic policies due to persistent shortages of oil, gasoline, wheat, and food.
- U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) General Laura Richardson announced her retirement from the U.S. Army, and will be replaced with U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Alvin Holsey.
- South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte agreed to increase information sharing and security cooperation in response to reports that North Korea is sending 12,000 troops to Ukraine. South Korea will also seek “practical countermeasures” in cooperation with NATO and its member states.
- A U.S. State Department envoy is holding talks in Beirut with the Lebanese government to discuss a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will head to the Middle East tonight to discuss a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
- An unidentified attacker lobbed an “explosive device” into the Chinese Consulate in Myanmar over the weekend. China demanded Myanmar increase security and “hunt down the perpetrators and bring them to justice.” (AC: China is facing similar low-level threats in Pakistan. Pakistan and Myanmar both have land borders with China and ports that bypass the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint for China’s maritime trade. – J.V.)
- The European Union’s Secretariat-General has created a “Trump task force” to prepare for a trade war with the United States in anticipation of a Trump victory in the 2024 election. The task force has prepared a package of “substantial retaliation” designed to force Trump to negotiate immediately after the first round of expected U.S. tariffs.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.