Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 26 August 2024.
- CHINA’S INCREASED AGGRESSION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: China had two aggressive incidents against the Philippines this weekend at the Sabina Shoal.
- On Sunday morning, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) intentionally collided with a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel near the Sabina Shoal. (In the video from the BFAR, the CCG vessel turns its nose from parallel to the BFAR boat to a collision course before hitting it.) The Philippine Navy reported that several People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and CCG vessels attempted to surround the vessel prior to the ramming.
- This morning, China reported “lawful measures” taken against two Philippine Coast Guard vessels in the Sabina Shoal. The initial report says “a new friction or collision may have occurred.”
Why It Matters: These bring us to three incidents in a week and five since China and the Philippines made a “commitment to peace” at the Second Thomas Shoal on 17 June. This increased Chinese aggression is likely to spread if left unchecked. China’s moves here may also be a means to divert U.S. resources away from Taiwan and the disputed Senkakus. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Egyptian mediation officials said that the Israelis and Hamas failed to reach a ceasefire agreement again this weekend. Israel wishes to keep a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border, the removal of which is required for Hamas to negotiate.
- The Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that Chinese military aircraft “violated” Japanese airspace “for the first time” this morning. The island the Y-9 aircraft flew over is about 100 miles from Nagasaki and the Japanese mainland. (“For the first time” likely refers to the particular island or its proximity to mainland Japan. The Chinese have entered Japanese airspace in the disputed Senkaku islands. – J.V.)
- South Korean officials speaking anonymously said they did not think the U.S. election would affect the alliance between the two countries. (This is the latest Asian nation to express confidence in the U.S.’ reliability post-election. Japan and the Philippines previously expressed similar views. With those three on the same side, U.S.-friendly diplomacy throughout the region is likely to continue, potentially deterring a Chinese reunification attempt. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.