Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 29 July 2024.
- ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR EXPANSION, LATEST INDICATORS: The Israeli Security Council authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide how and when Israel will respond to the latest attack from Hezbollah in the Golan Heights.
- The French, Norwegian, Belgian, German, Dutch, Macedonian, Kuwaiti, and Canadian Foreign Ministries called on their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately after the attack and throughout the weekend.
- Several regional airlines canceled flights to Lebanon in response to the Israeli Security Council decision.
Why It Matters: Consolidating the decision to just two people allows for expedited decision-making. This would severely lower the amount of warning, and the international responses may be due to the unpredictable nature of the situation rather than any solid indication of an expanded war. – J.V.
- JAPAN-U.S. 2+2 MEETING: A NEW JOINT HQ AND NUCLEAR UMBRELLA: After the latest defense “2+2” meeting, Japan and the U.S. announced that the U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) will be under a new joint headquarters with “expanded mission and operational responsibilities.” This will include potentially stationing U.S. troops in Japan’s Nansei Islands.
- Joint Headquarters normally share or cycle leadership between the participants.
- Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed that Japan is protected under the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella, explicitly including the disputed Senkaku Islands.
- Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, described the meeting as “maliciously attack[ing] and discredit[ing] China on maritime issues and made irresponsible remarks on China’s normal military development and national defense policy.”
Why It Matters: This potentially puts U.S. troops in the middle of the China-Japan territorial dispute. The territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands is also a potential nuclear flashpoint. The actual likelihood of nuclear use remains extremely low but is now on the table. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff (JGSDF) announced last week that Japan will begin installing an anti-ship missile testing ground on Minmitori island, which will help operationalize the improved Type-12 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). (Japan is building up defenses in the Second Island Chain while the improved Type-12 ASCM would be compatible with existing launchers in the southern Senkaku Islands, allowing Japan to strike enemy ships around Taiwan and the northern Philippines. – J.V.)
- The Quad Foreign Ministers (U.S., Japan, Australia, India) announced in a joint statement today that they will expand the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness infrastructure to include the Indian Ocean so they can monitor China’s activities there. The Quad will also launch a maritime legal dialogue “to focus our expertise on international law of the sea issues” among several other critical infrastructure and supply chain initiatives throughout the Asia Pacific region.
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced on Sunday that Malaysia applied to join BRICS+. If accepted, Malaysia would become the first member of the otherwise neutral Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to be a member of BRICS+.
- Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory over opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia after the electoral council published 51%-44% results in Maduro’s favor. Gonzalez Urrutia rejects the council’s numbers, saying he had 70% of the vote and is the new President-elect.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.