Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Monday, 30 September 2024.
- MIDDLE EAST WIDER WAR UPDATE: Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s Nasrallah over the weekend. The Lebanese government issued a three-day mourning period on Saturday.
- The assassination is the culmination of a series of strikes, including thousands of booby-trapped communications devices, that have removed half of Hezbollah’s leadership and devastated its military command
- Lebanon’s Army Command issued a call for national unity after the assassination. The Lebanese Prime Minister announced that he is ready to deploy the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River (where the majority of the fighting is likely to take place if Israel invades).
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman denied allegations that Iran is preparing to send troops to Lebanon stating, “Lebanon has shown its ability to defeat this occupation regime. The Islamic Republic of Iran does not need to deploy volunteers or auxiliary forces.”
- A small Israeli force is now conducting operations inside Lebanon in anticipation of a ground invasion.
Why It Matters: The assassination demonstrates Israel’s willingness to expand its military campaign, which now includes a ground invasion of Lebanon. While Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia have condemned the killing, most have not directly named Nasrallah, underscoring the divide in the Arab world over the balance of power between Iran and Sunni states. The event not only increases the likelihood of an open conflict between Israel and Lebanon but Iran and the United States, as well. – M.N.
- Global Rollup
- The U.S. Secretary of Defense announced that the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group will stay in the Middle East. The USS Harry Truman Strike Group deployed last week to relieve the Lincoln but will augment the forces instead. The Secretary said there would be further reinforcement to “our defensive air-support capabilities in the coming days.”
- The White House authorized a $567 million defense drawdown composed of “defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan.” (Military education and training likely means more U.S. troops deployed to Taiwan as we have seen with reports of U.S. Special Forces training Taiwanese troops in Taiwan. – J.V.)
- The Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced that they and the U.S. Department of Commerce are negotiating a memorandum of understanding to “enhance bilateral collaboration to increase and diversify essential critical mineral supply chains.” India’s trade minister is headed to the U.S. to sign the agreement this week. (India is a major producer of bauxite, iron ore, manganese, primary aluminum, refined lead, and zinc. India also proved to have significant uranium and thorium deposits in the 2010s. The deal provides partial mitigation for supply chain disruption and potentially a secondary nuclear fuel supplier. – J.V.)
- China has had three public missile launch sets over the past week including the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test into the Pacific, a wave of launches in central China around Mongolia, and a missile intercept test near the China-India border. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense placed Taiwan’s armed forces on high alert in response to the central China launches. (The ICBM test last week preceded a single-day Chinese air force blockade defense drill around Taiwan. This is likely the latest addition to the squeeze phases around Taiwan. The missile tests also indicate that even a blockade is likely to have lasting effects on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry since China will likely include missile strikes onto the island. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.