Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 01 August 2024.
- IRANIAN STRIKES ORDERED, ISRAEL READY FOR WIDER WAR: Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei ordered a strike against Israel in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a Hamas agent in Tehran.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a short address last night, saying, “Challenging days are ahead… We are ready for any scenario.”
- The State Department expanded a travel warning to all of Lebanon to Level 4: Do Not Travel. Previously only southern Lebanon was Level 4. They also raised Israel’s northern territory to a Level 4.
Why It Matters: While the Iranians are promising retaliation, Israeli officials have reportedly used back channels to warn Iran that a mass casualty attack will result in full-scale war. This was a consideration prior to Iran’s April half-baked retaliation over the Israeli targeting of two Iranian generals. At the time, I proposed that Iran might pursue a cyber attack for a couple reasons. First, Israel and Iran have already been locked in a multi-year tit-for-tat cyber war. Second, it could impose costs on Israel without causing casualties. The most dangerous course of action remains a mass casualty reprisal by Iran, which is ill-prepared for a full-scale war against Israel. – M.S.
- IPEF ASSIGNS PERSONNEL TO SHORE UP PACIFIC SUPPLY LINES: The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) Council met earlier this week to elect the Council and Supply Chain Crisis Response Network Chairs and Vice Chairs.
- The U.S. and India will serve as Chair and Vice Chair of the Council, while South Korea and Japan will Chair and Vice Chair the Crisis Response Network.
- The Crisis Response Network chairs will inventory all members’ supply of critical goods and conduct tabletop exercises to prepare for natural and man-made supply chain disruptions to ensure member nations have sufficient supplies. The Network will also establish alternate supply routes.
- Member nations include Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam.
Why It Matters: This will likely result in continued, though lessened, access to critical goods such as semiconductors, medical supplies, and critical minerals, mitigating some of the supply chain impacts in a Pacific war. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Japan is accusing China of falsifying a Foreign Ministers’ meeting statement to include Japan reaffirming the One-China Principle. When the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was confronted with this, the spokesman explained that this underpins the continued diplomacy between the two nations and that, to his knowledge, Japan had reaffirmed the principle. (The statement on the Japanese FM website does not include a reaffirmation of the One-China Principle. Falsifying records can lead to widespread distrust, particularly if China is caught repeatedly falsifying them. – J.V.)
- Russia is running mobility and equipment camouflaging drills on the Kuril Islands, which have been disputed territory with Japan since World War II.
- Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro said there are “serious doubts” about the Venezuelan election, and he urged Maduro to be transparent and accept the real results. Meanwhile, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Brazilian President Lula da Silva each voiced support for the election, but da Silva wanted the ballots released to confirm it.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.