Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 06 June 2024.
- RUSSIA COULD FUND MORE TERRORISM AND SHIP STRIKES: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia reserves the right to arm groups within striking distance of the West in retaliation for the West authorizing Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike Russia.
- “If they consider it possible to deliver such weapons to the combat zone to launch strikes on our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same type to some regions of the world where they can be used to launch strikes on sensitive facilities of the countries that do it to Russia?” Putin announced at a press conference.
Why It Matters: Russia’s most likely customer is the Houthis, whom they could provide advanced anti-ship missiles. However, Russia could also sell heavier weapons short of missiles to terrorist groups and Transnational Criminal Organizations within Western borders. This would provide an immediate and moderately deniable response. – J.V.
- HOUSE HOMELAND SECURITY HEARING POINTS TO NEAR-TERM WAR: The House Homeland Security Committee held a hearing to examine Chinese gray zone threats to the maritime domain. In it, Committee Chairman Carlos Giminez (R-FL) addresses the fundamental territory and international law disagreement between China, its neighbors, and the United States.
- Eric Cooper, a senior policy research fellow at Rand Corporation, suggested to Congress that the U.S. should form a U.S. Coast Guard-led multinational task force similar to Combined Task Force 151 in the Middle East to enforce international law to “clarify” the gray zone.
- The day prior to the hearing, Rand released a commentary suggesting the U.S. maintain its course with the Philippines while possibly expanding the Mutual Defense Treaty triggers to include actions by China’s Maritime Militia, infringements on the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, and further decoupling from China in response to their actions in the South China Sea.
Why It Matters: Forcefully imposing international law on China with a multinational task force will play into their domestic “China containment” and anti-imperialism international narratives. The hearing also demonstrates a lack of will on Congress’ part to even address the Chinese side and potentially mitigate gray zone activities by diplomatically gaining concessions. Additionally, expanding the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty in the suggested manner would almost immediately justify war before any party is ready, as China is already routinely conducting both actions. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Estonian Permanent Representative to NATO Jüri Luik said at a panel on Baltic NATO that the July NATO Summit’s success depends entirely on the Russians’ failure on the battlefield leading up to it.
- China’s food security law went into effect this month, aiming to achieve food self-sufficiency through moderate importation, yield-boosting technologies, top-to-bottom governmental control, and national emergency plans and monitoring systems. (While obviously an insulation effort from any sanctions by the West, this may have a short-term secondary benefit of level or lower food prices in the West if there is a surplus of grains left unbought. The law primarily addresses grains, but we may see a similar self-sufficiency law for beef and pork, of which China is the largest importer. – J.V.)
- Over half (51%) of Mexico is experiencing severe or extreme drought, and the Valle de Bravo lagoon that serves as a water source for Mexico City is currently at 28% of its normal water level, according to data from the Mexican government. (Sheinbaum will very likely continue Lopez-Obrador’s stance on the water treaty and will push off sending water allotments under the 1944 water treaty. It is possible that Mexico cannot send the rest of the treaty-allotted water even if Sheinbaum delays water shipments until the end of the five-year treaty period, which will exacerbate water shortages in the Southwest United States. – R.C.)
- The World Health Organization (WHO) reported the first confirmed case of an Avian Flu H5N2 infection in Mexico after a 59-year-old patient died in a Mexico City hospital. (This is a different strain of Avian Flu than what is currently spreading through U.S. cattle and poultry populations, and according to the WHO, there have been some small outbreaks of the H5N2 virus in poultry birds in Mexico. – R.C.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.