Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 07 March 2024.
- FATAL ANTI-SHIP MISSILE STRIKE BY HOUTHIS UNDERMINES U.S.: Yemen’s Houthis struck the commercial ship M/V True Confidence with a missile while the ship sailed in international waters in the Gulf of Aden. The strike resulted in three deaths, three critically injured, and an abandoned ship on fire.
- Houthi Spokesman Mohamed Abdelsalam said that the Houthis only fire after warning, and the U.S. is responsible for every death.
Why It Matters: First, no Americans were involved in the attack. Second, this was an above-the-waterline strike, so the burning ship is likely to remain a navigational hazard for weeks. Lastly, this happened just after the new permitting system was activated. Shipping and insurance companies are likely to comply with this law and any new ones as other nations decide to extort money at chokepoints. – J.V.
- CHINA’S HARSH WORDS ON TAIWANESE INDEPENDENCE: At the annual National People’s Congress of China, President Xi Jinping and Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi played “the carrot and the stick” narrative tactic for Taiwan.
- “Whoever promotes Taiwan’s independence will be liquidated by history. Anyone in the international community who supports Taiwan independence and plays with fire will get burned and suffer the consequences,” Wang Yi said.
Why It Matters: This message of choosing the peaceful route or the warlike route will resonate with Taiwan. Strengthening anti-independence forces likely means promoting Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party members to reaffirm the 1992 Consensus, preventing an independence declaration. There are very few pro-unification forces in Taiwan, but China’s shaping operations could promote them into power as it seeks to degrade the U.S.-led international order. – J.V.
- 10K INDIAN TROOPS TO CHINESE BORDER: India is moving 10,000 troops to its border with China on top of the 9,000 already stationed there. Indian Chief of the Army Staff General Manoj Pande said nations are resorting to hard power to achieve political objectives.
Why It Matters: India previously announced the recruitment of these 10,000 troops to join the border police. India is bolstering its defenses while acknowledging that respect for international law is degrading and the age of “might makes right” is returning. – J.V.
- KIM JONG UN OBSERVES BORDER BATTLE TRAINING: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observed military drills that included storming objectives similar to South Korean border control posts.
Why It Matters: Kim publicly shifted his stance from reunification to separation with the right to annihilate the South a few weeks ago. These drills are likely a response to the latest South Korean drills in an ongoing tit-for-tat on the respective sides of the 38th parallel. – J.V.
- CHINA: “DELETE AMERICA” FROM SOFTWARE AND IT BY 2027: China intends to remove all foreign software from state-owned enterprises by 2027, according to a recently released internal document from 2022.
Why It Matters: 2027 is an important year because it’s widely regarded as an operational window for Chinese military action on Taiwan. It’s also nearing the end of Xi’s third term, so reunifying Taiwan by then would cement his legacy. Meanwhile, giving state-owned enterprises a deadline of removing foreign software, especially American software, would further insulate China from cyber exploitation during a conflict or crisis. – M.S.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.