Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 11 April 2024.
- ISRAEL THREATENS DIRECT STRIKES ON IRAN: U.S. and Israeli officials reported yesterday that they expect a missile and drone attack by Iran to be imminent.
- Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz threatened direct strikes against Iran if Iran conducted attacks from Iranian territory.
- Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini continued to threaten retaliation for Israeli strikes that killed multiple senior Iranian military officials earlier this month.
- Three sons and three grandchildren of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh were killed in an Israeli airstrike yesterday. Three of Haniyeh’s sons and grandchildren were reportedly visiting family for the Eid al-Fitr holiday and did not pose a threat, according to relatives.
- Russia this morning reiterated that its citizens should avoid travel to the Middle East, specifically to Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.
Why It Matters: To reiterate previous points, I doubt Iran wants to start a conventional war with Israel, so their retaliatory attacks should remain beneath the threshold that would trigger one. Israel has bolstered security for personnel and embassies abroad and activated air defense reservists in anticipation of missile barrages. – M.S.
- U.S., AUSTRALIA, JAPAN TO BUILD NETWORKED MISSILE DEFENSE: U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the U.S., Australia, and Japan will build a networked air, missile, and defense architecture.
- Japan and the U.S. will also jointly develop counterstrike capabilities, Command and Control (C2) infrastructure, a Low-Earth orbit missile detection and tracking satellite constellation, and missile production, resupply, and vessel repair facilities and commercial and military dual-use facilities.
- Additionally, “President Biden reiterated the unwavering commitment of the United States to the defense of Japan under Article V of the Treaty, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities.” He specified that this includes the disputed Senkaku islands.
Why It Matters: Japan’s forceful preparations indicate they likely think a war with China is inevitable, which will significantly bolster the U.S.’ confidence to fight and win a war in the Pacific. Biden has now committed to defending the Philippines’ Second Thomas Shoal, including the grounded BRP Sierra Madre and Japan’s Senkaku Islands, from armed attacks against China. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Russian diplomats are demanding an investigation into attacks on the Russian embassy in Lithuania. Local media reported Molotov cocktails damaged the embassy building in Vilnius.
- Britain announced it will join the United States and Japan in joint military exercises in the Indo-Pacific starting in 2025.
- India is set to expand its defense attache program to Djibouti, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ivory Coast, the Philippines, Poland, and possibly other countries to expand its strategic presence.
- Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said NATO is building its cyber capabilities to target Russia from facilities run by the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland.
- Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian troops outnumber Ukrainian troops by 7-10 to one in Ukraine’s eastern regions.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.