Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 12 September 2024.
- CHINA HELPS NORTH KOREA EVADE SANCTIONS: North Korea and China were recently exposed for importing Western and Japanese goods to North Korea via China, bypassing international sanctions on North Korea.
- The United Nations maintains a maritime sanctions enforcement presence based in South Korea specifically for sanctions on North Korea.
Why It Matters: The UN sanctions enforcement mission may be tasked with interdicting vessels suspected of bringing sanctioned goods to these workaround centers. If so, this would cause significant backlash from China in the diplomatic sphere. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- China hosted the Philippines for a meeting on the Sabina Shoal yesterday. The two sides stated incompatible views before terminating the meeting but agreed to maintain “open dialogue” on the issue. (The reporting on these talks was unusually direct and not framed in the normal optimism. China is likely to attempt to physically disable the ship at the Sabina shoal again, risking an activation of the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty. – J.V.)
- Russia and China will respond to the U.S.’ “double containment” with a “double counteraction” according to the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman. This statement came in response to the U.S. preparing to deploy the Typhon missile system to Japan for an exercise. (The U.S. drew a similar reaction to its European deployment of the Typhon. Russia and China are likely to increase their joint operations in number and quality to prepare Russia for involvement in a Pacific war. – J.V.)
- The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill this week requiring regular review of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (unofficial embassies). The bill demands closure of the Offices if the President determines the Offices no longer merit ambassadorial protections. (China is framing this bill as damaging to U.S.-China relations and a means of containment imposed on Hong Kong. China promised strong responses to any closures. These are likely to be reminiscent of the Wolf Warrior diplomacy campaign, which significantly degraded China’s image with the Asian Pacific and European nations. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.