Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 17 October 2024.
- Global Rollup
- Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that Egypt “will not be drawn into wars unless there is a direct threat to the borders and resources of the state” during a press conference yesterday. Madbouly added, “If the ongoing war in the region escalates and targets nuclear and oil facilities, there will be enormous repercussions on the region.” (AC: According to the 2022 data on OEC, shutting down the Persian Gulf would have cut off about 10% of Egypt’s imports. If Israel causes the Gulf states or Iran to fully shut down the Strait of Hormuz, we may see Egypt go to war. – J.V.)
- Iran’s oil infrastructure suffered two major setbacks this week with an oil pipeline leak outside of Kharg Island and a fire at a southern oil refinery. Kharg Island is the export location of about 90% of Iran’s oil. Iran is still investigating both incidents and has not assigned blame.
- North Korea reiterated that its constitution labels South Korea a “hostile state”, confirmed the destruction of the inter-Korea roads and rails, and attributed all of the above to “serious security circumstances running to the unpredictable brink of war owing to the grave political and military provocations of the hostile forces.”
- India ran a media blitz last night against Canada as part of the ongoing diplomatic dispute over Indian officials involved in an assassination attempt in Canada. The U.K.’s Prime Minister told Canada’s Prime Minister that India’s cooperation with Canada is “the right next step.” Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is urging India to “handle issues related to the Taiwan region in a prudent and proper manner” after Taiwan opened a liaison office in Mumbai. (AC: China is likely taking advantage of the dispute to dissuade India from joining a potential military confrontation over Taiwan, which the U.S., U.K., and Canada would lead. – J.V.)
- Taiwan’s Foreign Minister accused China of creating a “new normal” through gray zone warfare and that Taiwan is grateful for the U.S. “firm support for Taiwan’s security” at a keynote speech for the Global Taiwan Institute.
- Kazakhstan turned down a BRICS+ membership offer. Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev reportedly said that he supports the mission to “build a fair, democratic world order free from hegemony” but that “the UN [is] a universal and uncontested organization in which all current international issues can and should be discussed, including those related to the construction of a just world order.” (AC: Kazakhstan is a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s Central Asian equivalent to NATO. Kazakhstan is also in the center of BRICS’ primary trade routes. This decision is almost certainly heavily influenced by the U.S. State Department. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.