Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 19 September 2024.
- U.S. NAVY CNO PUBLISHES PLANS TO FIGHT CHINA IN 2027: The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) is explicitly planning for a war with China in 2027. The planning document, published yesterday, refers only to Pacific theater preparations. [CNO PLAN]
- The CNO admits that the Navy will not achieve the desired end-strength by 2027 and will supplement with prepositioned forces, unmanned systems, and reliance on allies, partners, and the joint force.
- The CNO intends to have 80% of the surface fleet combat ready by 2027 by eliminating maintenance delays and “embracing novel approaches” to readiness.
- The CNO maintained that the Navy will need a 3-5% budget increase over inflation to grow the fleet (approximately 5.5-7.5% budget increase each year).
- Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo told Taiwanese media that it is increasingly difficult to tell when China will switch from exercises into a war footing. “The scale of [Chinese] activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war,” Koo said. He added that Taiwan has been quietly expanding military cooperation with the U.S. and “other friends and allies” to avoid interference from China.
- SEAL Team 6 is reportedly training for missions related to the defense of Taiwan, according to a recent report from the Financial Times.
- CIA Director Bill Burns also recently said that 20% of the Agency’s budget is dedicated to the China mission.
Why It Matters:
- The CNO’s report is entirely focused on the Pacific but references 80% of the surface fleet being combat ready, suggesting a significant shift away from the Atlantic, potentially leaving East Coast imports and other theaters vulnerable. The spending requirements stated are well behind the curve with the Fiscal Year 2025 budget request being only 0.7% instead of the 5.5% minimum requirement. Lastly, the 80% readiness is likely just redefining terms to achieve the wicket, leaving the Navy less ready overall. – J.V.
- As a reminder, nearly 20% of all U.S. imports come from China, while 40% come from the broader Indo-Pacific region. Another almost 20% of U.S. imports come from Europe. That’s at least 60% of all U.S. imports likely to be severely disrupted during a time of war. That means product shortages and much higher prices for years to come, if the CNO’s 2027 expectation of war with China is accurate. – M.S.
- Global Rollup
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a “new phase” of the war. The Israeli Defense Force also announced it would redeploy the 98th Division to northern Israel, away from southern Israel, immediately.
- Ukraine’s Foreign Minister asked NATO member Romania to fire on Russian drones in Ukrainian airspace during his visit after Romania donated a Patriot missile system to Ukraine.
- The U.S. Justice Department announced that the FBI disrupted a Chinese government contractor botnet system affecting 200,000 small-office/home-office (SOHO) routers, internet protocol (IP) cameras, digital video recorders (DVRs), and network-attached storage (NAS) devices. The system was developed by a Chinese company that sells the “ability to hack into and control thousands of consumer devices worldwide.”
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.