Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Thursday, 24 October 2024.
- BRICS SUMMIT SUMMARY: World leaders gathered for the 16th annual BRICS summit in Russia, welcoming Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into the bloc and issuing the Kazan declaration. Here are the key takeaways:
- Ukraine: emphasized importance of UN charter to conflict resolution
- Middle East: condemned Israeli “escalation” in Gaza and Lebanon
- Western Sanctions: deplored “unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions.”
- International Financial System: urged reform of international financial architecture to make international finance more “inclusive and just.”
- Grain Exchange: announced plans for new commodities trading platform within BRICS, beginning with grain and gradually expanding to other agricultural goods
- Cross-Border Payments: encouraged use of local currencies in financial transactions in support of BRICS cross-border payment system (BRICS Clear); endorsed financial innovations of the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM), reaffirmed commitment to IMF and G20
Why It Matters: The BRICS summit was more of a symbolic victory, with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi holding formal talks for the first time in five years, having just reached a deal to resolve a four-year dispute over the Himalayan frontier. The addition of five new member states to BRICS, along with the bloc’s financial innovations and continued economic growth, underscore the organization’s vitality and the failure of Western countries to alienate Russia. – M.N.
- Global Rollup
- The U.K.’s MI-5 General Director Ken McCallum said the U.K. faces “state-backed sabotage and assassination plots, against the backdrop of a major European land war.” According to McCallum, in an “eye-catching shift” Russian state actors are turning to proxies “for their dirty work,” including private intelligence operatives and criminals from the U.K. and third countries.
- The German Finance Minister urged Donald Trump not to start a trade war with the European Union because it “harms both sides” and is a risk to “the league of liberal democracies and free traders.”
- China’s South China Sea neighbors are increasingly pushing back on China. The South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a China-based research hub, published satellite imagery of a Vietnamese airstrip on a Vietnamese-occupied shoal. The Indonesians drove off a Chinese Coast Guard vessel that was harassing an Indonesian research vessel off the coast of Indonesia.
- Taiwan continues to discuss preparations for a Chinese blockade of the island. The Defense Minister announced that the country’s has less than 14 days worth of natural gas stockpiled. The Minister expects to mitigate this by reactivating coal power plants, leaning on the much larger strategic coal stockpile, rationing, and increasing gas storage facilities. (OEC says in 2022, allied nations accounted for 66% of Taiwan’s coal imports and 54.5% of LNG imports. Taiwan is likely to increase its energy reliance on allied nations so it has a reliable source of energy during a blockade or war. – J.V.)
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.