Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Tuesday, 04 June 2024.
- FILIPINO SERVICEMEN AIM THEIR GUNS AT THE CCG: China is accusing Filipino troops stationed on the grounded BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal of aiming their guns at members of the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) attempting to intercept a food supply airdropped near the Sierra Madre. The initial event occurred on 19 May, but both sides are publicizing it now.
- The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) public affairs officer initially denied the claims before the AFP’s Chief of Staff said it was inadvertent but that the servicemen had a right to defend themselves.
- Video of the incident shows two Chinese Rigid-Hulled Inflatable Boats (RHIBs) driving erratically before one of the RHIBs hits the Filipino recovery boat. Then, all the Filipino personnel start yelling and pointing at the Chinese.
- Since the incident, China has doubled its People’s Liberation Army Navy presence, maintained the CCG vessel presence, and reduced its maritime militia presence by almost 20% in the South China Sea and around the disputed shoals.
Why It Matters: The AFP troops likely intentionally aimed their weapons at the CCG members attempting to destroy their food. Using the commonly accepted lethal force triad of capability, opportunity, and intent, the Filipino troops just authorized China to use lethal force at the lowest level. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- The U.S., South Korea, and Japan are starting a new exercise called Freedom Edge this summer, according to a joint statement from their Trilateral Ministerial Meeting. (Freedom Edge is likely related to the annual U.S.-Korea exercise called Ulchi Freedom Shield, which focuses on a sudden transition to all-out war on the peninsula. The Joint Statement in which Freedom Edge was announced focused on nuclear war with North Korea, so a trilateral response to a nuclear strike may be in the works. – J.V.)
- Australia’s Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, ordered Chinese investors to divest of the Australian rare earth mineral miner Northern Minerals yesterday on national security grounds. Northern Minerals reported this morning that operational, financial, and corporate information from a March 2024 cyber attack was leaked to the “dark web” this morning. (The official story is that this is unrelated, but the timing seems retaliatory. – J.V.)
- Norway’s Defense Chief General Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview on Monday that NATO has “a window now for the next two to three years to rebuild our forces, to rebuild our stocks at the same time as we are supporting Ukraine.”
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.