Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Tuesday, 15 October 2024.
- NWC: CONQUEST OF TAIWAN IS LIKELY NUMERICALLY UNFEASIBLE: According to a study published by the United States Naval War College, the conquest of Taiwan is likely to be numerically unfeasible for China. The study reviews Operation Causeway, a World War 2 American plan to take Taiwan from the Japanese.
- The planners estimated 750-777k troops would be needed to take Taiwan and its outlying territories, based on 35,000 Japanese troops defending the island (a 20-to-1 ratio).
- As of 2022, China’s Armed Forces had 2.5 million active and reserve troops. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Armed Forces had 1.8 million active and reserve troops.
- The plan also did not account for Japanese reinforcements from the northern Philippines.
- Taiwan’s government reportedly repurposed and expanded the Japanese fortifications during the Cold War and “some remain active.”
Why It Matters:
- Most Dangerous Course of Action: China misjudges its capabilities while the 20:1 remains true, causing a war that jeopardizes global supply chains in the immediate and long term. China remains the world’s manufacturing hub. Taiwan controls global high-tech semiconductor production. The U.S. is still the primary financial center of the world. All three of those sectors would likely be decimated in a war where two of the three primary belligerents are unprepared for a high-end war.
- Most Likely Course of Action: China has seen this public report along with decades of internal analysis and decides to weaken and destroy their adversaries from within. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured President Biden that Israel’s retaliation against Iran will not include strikes against non-military targets, including nuclear and oil sites. U.S. officials claim that the promise was a key factor in the decision to send an advanced anti-ballistic missile air defense system to Israel.
- The U.S. announced on Sunday that it is deploying troops and one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) battery to Israel to contribute to Israel’s air defense. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced during his trip to Oman that Iran would no longer be sending messages to the U.S. through Oman due to “specific regional circumstances.”
- China launched Joint Sword 2024B over the weekend around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai’s National Day speech last week. Joint Sword 2024B is a joint service exercise using China’s Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard to encircle Taiwan. (This is the long-awaited follow-up to 2024A that was launched in response to Lai’s inauguration in May. Both exercises saw record air incursions, with 153 happening yesterday. China is most likely attempting to undermine Taiwanese public support for Lai by running major drills on key national holidays. – J.V.)
- The United States is building a solar farm in Serbia explicitly to help Serbia become less reliant on Russian energy imports. Under Secretary of State Jose Fernandez said, “We are seeing with good eyes the fact that Serbia wants to diversify its sources of energy,” adding “Some countries have learned the hard way that Putin will weaponize countries’ dependence on energy.”
- North Korea destroyed the northern parts of the inter-Korea roads, a symbol of Korean cooperation and eventual reunification. North Korea announced that they will cut off road and rail routes between the Koreas and accused South Korea of sending drones over Pyongyang. In response, South Korea reportedly fired warning shots to the North.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.