Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Tuesday, 22 October 2024.
- Global Rollup
- South Korea is threatening to send weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s reported troops deployed to Ukraine. South Korea has also summoned the Russian Ambassador to South Korea to demand Russia send the North Korean troops home to avoid an escalation.
- European diplomats plan to resume discussions on tightening economic sanctions against Russian energy, once the EU presidency passes from Hungary to Poland in January 2025. (U.S. companies already provide roughly 50% of Europe’s LNG supplies and 12% of its oil, and so along with greater support for the war in Ukraine, a Polish presidency would likely increase Europe’s energy dependence on the United States. – M.N.)
- Taiwan’s agriculture ministry reported that its strategic food stocks could last the island at least seven months, more than double the minimum required by law. The ministry also announced rationing, farmland reuse, and monthly monitoring plans to prepare for a Chinese blockade. (This is a significant deterrence for the Chinese as Taiwan’s energy ministry is likely making similar moves with petrol and natural gas and China is unlikely to maintain the operational tempo required for a seven-month blockade. – J.V.)
- China’s soybean importers are shifting from American to Brazilian soybeans in response to Donald Trump’s tariff plan. (China is likely trying to achieve a better negotiating position in any potential trade war under a Trump administration. – J.V.)
- India announced a new border patrolling deal with China ahead of the BRICS Summit while the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed an indictment of another Indian government official for attempting to assassinate a Sikh on American soil. (The border deal announcement has dominated Indian news and came out just after the DOJ announcement. It is likely that India is visibly improving its relation with China to persuade the U.S. and Canadian governments to back off on the prosecutions. – J.V.)
- Assistant Secretary of Energy Andrew Light announced that the U.S. is in talks with the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand to share Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology. (Since SMRs are not widely produced in the U.S., yet, this is likely a means to get foreign investment in technology development while also creating a partial dependency for these states. – J.V.)
- Mozambique is in a period of unrest following allegations of election fraud and the assassination of two political officials. Election results are due Thursday, which could tip the country into worsening violence. “When the revolutionary atmosphere is present, it means we also need revolutionary leadership,” said the opposition political candidate.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.