Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Tuesday, 23 April 2024.
- RUSSIA READIES FOR SUMMER PUSH: Last week, senior NATO officials said they expect Russia to attempt a major push past Ukrainian defensive lines by the fall. A Ukrainian general recently told the media that Russian forces are readying for a summer offensive.
- Meanwhile, in response to the latest anticipated U.S. weapons and aid package to Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia will increase attacks against weapons shipments coming into Ukraine.
Why It Matters: American ATACMs and British Storm Shadow missiles may help the Ukrainian military fight Russia to a stalemate in parts of the country, but weapons do not solve Ukraine’s manpower problem. Ukrainian officials earlier this month said they’re outnumbered in the east by 10 to 1. Today, Ukraine’s foreign ministry announced the suspension of consular services for military-aged males living abroad, except in the case of travel back to Ukraine, which is another sign that Ukraine is desperate for conscripts. – M.S.
- RUSSIA THREATENS RETALIATION IF ASSETS SEIZED: Members of Russia’s Federal Assembly warned they have drafted legislation to retaliate against Western interests if the United States and Europe seize Russia’s frozen assets.
- “We also have a prepared answer… And the Europeans will lose more than we do,” Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, said.
Why It Matters: While the West continues to mull the seizure of Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly warned that the move will undermine the U.S. dollar and the perceived safety of assets in Western financial systems. A large majority of frozen Russian assets remain in Europe, and analysts expect Russia could freeze or seize European assets in response. – M.S.
- Global Rollup
- U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s Admiral John Aquilino said that China’s growth in military spending despite its “failing economy” is “concerning.”
- The U.S. is preparing to cut Chinese banks off from the global financial system if they continue to commercially support trade with Russia. According to Reuters, the sanctions are only drafts and intended to be used as an unspoken threat during Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China.
- The U.K. summoned China’s Ambassador Zheng Zeguang on Monday after the U.K.’s counter-terrorism police began investigating two men, including a former parliamentary researcher for the China Research Group, for spying for China. China denies the claims and calls it “malicious slander.”
- German authorities arrested an EU parliamentary aide identified as “Jian G” for spying for China. This is a separate individual from the three reported yesterday.
- Taiwan’s government pledged to remove the last 760 statues of Chiang Kai-shek, their former generalissimo, founder of their military, and major figure of the Kuomintang (KMT). The KMT decried this as “de-sinocization”.
- Kim Jong Un oversaw a “nuclear counterattack” drill where they simulated being nuked and responding with nuclear ballistic missiles yesterday.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.