Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Day, 27 June 2023.
- FIRST UP: U.S., European advisors describe latest counteroffensive as a “suicide mission.”
- U.S. and European advisors in Ukraine say Ukrainian army commanders are failing to concentrate their forces, instead piecemealing them into uncoordinated attacks across a wide frontage, resulting in heavy casualties.
- Ukraine lost 38 tanks, including newly delivered Leopard II tanks, during the evening of 08 June when they drove into a minefield covered by Russian artillery and anti-tank weapons.
Why It Matters: Ukrainian units trained in the U.K. failed to clear minefields ahead of their advances and disregarded the threat from Russian KA-52 attack helicopters which have decimated Ukraine’s armored forces from stand-off distances of up to 10km. At this point, it is doubtful that Ukraine will be able to break through Russian defensive lines, which will likely set the conditions for a future negotiated end to the conflict.
- RUSSIA GOES BIG: Senior Russian lawmaker calls for a new 7 million-man army
- Senior Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky called for an expansion of the Russian Army to 7 million men. The effort is a move to disband paramilitary forces.
- Slutsky said that Russia needs a contract army of at least seven million military and civilian personnel, on top of the current conscript army.
Why It Matters: A seven-million man army in addition to the current conscript army will require a massive military build-up and modernization program and would dwarf what NATO has available in Europe.
- GANG UPRISING: Honduran military takes control of prisons after gang dispute.
- Leftist President Xiomara Castro reversed her previous stance demilitarizing the prison system after a prison gang dispute left 46 prisoners dead.
- Military police on Monday seized pistols, machine guns, ammunition, magazines and grenades from an area of the Tamara prison occupied by the Barrio 18 gang.
Why It Matters: Central American countries have had difficulty controlling gang violence and criminal activity in their prison systems. Honduras is following El Salvador’s template to gain control of their prisons. The new tactics employ draconian control mechanisms and will surely garner condemnation from human rights activists in America and Europe.
- GOING COASTAL: Japan, Philippines, and U.S. exercises include coast guard
- Japan, the Philippines, and the U.S. held joint naval exercises in conjunction with nine Indo-Pacific coast guards that attended the International Maritime Security Conference (ISMC) in Singapore.
- The ISMC is normally a naval conference but this year was the first time it included coast guards.
Why It Matters: China uses its naval militia of fishing vessels and its coast guard to harass and intimidate smaller nations’ coast guards and poach their fisheries. China has also begun oil and gas exploration in a number of disputed areas resulting in conflicts in the Philippines and official protests in Vietnam. Unifying and training various smaller nation’s coast guards on dealing with China’s gray zone actions could help contain Chinese expansion outside its territorial waters.
- ISRAEL: Netanyahu to visit China
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that the U.S. remained Israel’s primary ally, despite his going to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- The visit follows a visit by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas where Xi stated he would work on a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Why It Matters: China is expanding its influence into the Arabian Gulf and appears to be consolidating its gains throughout the Middle East. A Chinese brokered peace agreement between Israel and Palestinian factions would be another huge win for Beijing and increase their standing as a global superpower.
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