Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Wednesday, 17 July 2024.
- RUMORS OF XI’S STROKE HIGHLIGHT LOOMING SUCCESSION CRISIS: Jennifer Zeng, a defected former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) State Council Researcher, reports that people close to Chinese President Xi Jinping and the State Council are saying Xi had a stroke during China’s Third Plenary Session.
- Xi had a cerebral aneurysm at the end of 2021 that he reportedly had treated with “Traditional Chinese Medicine.” These aneurysms can potentially rupture and cause a hemorrhagic stroke.
- Xi, like Mao, has no clear successor.
- The Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party Congress is reserved for deciding and announcing the Party’s future plans. This particular Third Plenary has been repeatedly delayed and is, so far, untelevised.
Why It Matters: Xi faces a fair amount of pushback from his party’s Maoists because he is a market reformer, similar to Deng Xiaoping. When Mao died, he was immediately succeeded by Hua Guofeng, but Deng Xiaoping usurped authority within two years, causing a contested government for most of Hua’s reign. If Xi dies or cannot continue governing, there is likely to be a succession crisis as reform and Maoist factions within the CCP vie for power. A succession crisis could delay or reverse some of China’s gains in the Asia Pacific. It would likely embolden China’s regional adversaries like Japan or the Philippines to seize and cement their own gains. – J.V.
- PHILIPPINES LOOKS FOR ALLIES ON NEXT RESUPPLY: The Philippine Navy announced it is exploring options for a joint resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal with a regional ally (U.S., Australia, or Japan) as an “exercise” under the Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity agreement.
- Philippine Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro said the next resupply mission is awaiting the guidance of the Philippines’ maritime council.
- The U.S. Joint Chief of Staff General Charles Brown Jr. and Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief General Romeo Brawner held a meeting in the Philippines to discuss “enhancing bilateral defense cooperation, strengthening joint military exercises, and addressing regional security challenges.”
Why It Matters: Regardless of which ally joins the Philippines, the U.S. Navy or a nation that has a mutual defense treaty with the U.S. could potentially have a wounding or lethal run-in with the Chinese Coast Guard, which could trigger greater escalation. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- China reports an 18% increase in shipbuilding tonnage comparing the first halves of 2024 and 2023. China also claims to have 55% of global shipbuilding completions and 74.7% of new global orders in the first half of 2024, and an orderbook accounting for 58.9% of the global total as measured by tonnage.
- The Philippines Air Force conducted a dogfight exercise against the Thai Air Force’s Gripen fighters in Australia’s exercise Pitch Black. (The Gripen is similar in size, shape, and capability to China’s J-10, a potential aircraft the Philippines would face if it went to war with China. – J.V.)
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Ukrainian media that NATO opposed Poland using its air defense systems to intercept Russian missiles as this would be direct involvement in the war.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.