Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Wednesday, 23 October 2024.
- THINK TANKERS APPEAL TO NUCLEAR DOCTRINE UNDER TRUMP: The Hudson Institute hosted two panels this week intended to shape the nuclear doctrine of a future Trump administration.
- Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, advisor to U.S. Strategic Command, advocated for space-based missile defense, theater-range nuclear missiles, increasing the nuclear stockpile, deploying nuclear weapons with allies abroad, and an explicit framing of nuclear doctrine along Just War theory in Christian morality.
- Ryan Tully, former National Security Council (NSC) official, articulated the deterrence successes of the Trump administration and advocated for increasing societal tensions between Russia and China by emphasizing simmering tensions between the two powers in Siberia and the Arctic.
- Matt Costlow, former Special Assistant in the Trump Administration, identified a preemptive nuclear strike from Russia as the worst-case scenario and emphasized the need to achieve key objectives even after a nuclear exchange to mobilize forces and deter China. Tully advocated for theater-range nuclear missiles, increasing homeland defense and refusing a “No First Use” or “Sole Purpose” policy.
Why It Matters: The think tankers are likely to be appealing to a Trump-Vance administration and make the threats of nuclear war more palatable to the public. They are careful to say that while the threats must be credible, the goal is to prevent a nuclear war. Thus, a potential Trump administration under this guidance will likely be perceived as more aggressive while attempting to deter a nuclear war. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Kim Jong Un publicly inspected North Korea’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles on Wednesday, telling his military to “stay fully ready to keep thorough counteraction posture.” (“Counteraction posture” is likely a retranslation of “second strike capability” or specific nomenclature for a step up the escalation ladder. – J.V.)
- South Korean intelligence officials report that the roughly 10,000 North Korean troops currently undergoing training in Russia are expected to be deployed to Ukraine around December.
- Liberal Members in Canada’s Parliament are petitioning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign. A group of lawmakers from Trudeau’s Liberal Party have collected signatures on a letter calling for the Prime Minister to step down and will present the petition during a caucus meeting. Trudeau has remained defiant in the face of calls to resign, but growing opposition within his own party could convince him to step down as soon as Wednesday.
- Israeli authorities announced the arrest of seven individuals, including two minors, in what’s being characterized as a serious security breach. Israeli security service Shin Bet is accusing the seven of spying on behalf of Iran and providing sensitive documents to Iranian intelligence officers. Espionage activities included developing targeting information for the Hadera powerplant and the Iron Dome missile defense system.
- Russia’s Foreign Ministry is claiming a cyber attack today is “hostile activity [that] may be connected to the BRICS Summit in Kazan.”
- China sailed the Liaoning Carrier Strike Group through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday night, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. This follows Chinese live fire drills at the northern mouth of the Strait on Tuesday morning and a U.S.-Canada Strait Transit on Sunday.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.