Good morning, and welcome to the Global Situation Report for Wednesday, 26 June 2024.
- ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR UPDATE: A war between Israel, Hezbollah, and numerous additional groups supporting Hezbollah remains possible.
- Israel appointed war coordinators for the Northern and Southern regions over the weekend. The Southern commander said in a recent interview referencing the northern situation, “A government that will not transfer the war to the enemy’s territory and remove the threat does not deserve to be the government of Israel.”
- Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General of Hezbollah, claims 100,000 foreign fighters have come from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Pakistan specifically to help the war effort. He did not give a timeline for how long they have been coming in but noted that many had already served together in Syria’s civil war.
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington, D.C., asking for continued support against “Iran and its proxies,” while the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Brown, said the U.S. would not help in a fight against Hezbollah since that would cause Iran to “be more inclined to support Hezbollah.”
Why It Matters: In this new front, the U.S. is unlikely to get more involved than the humanitarian support they are already providing to Gaza. If Nasrallah’s claims are true, an expanded war could severely hinder trade in the Mediterranean, and this could destabilize the region as the fighters he references are likely non-state actors. The most direct potential impact would be anti-Israel activists in the U.S. potentially using Israel’s actions to drive engagement and turnout or increased terrorist attacks against the United States. – J.V.
- CHINA IS MAKING DIPLOMACY WITH THE U.S. A ONE-WAY STREET: The Wall Street Journal published an interview with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns yesterday where he accused the Chinese of repeatedly intimidating potential participants of U.S. Embassy-hosted cultural exchanges, shutting down power to the embassy without prior warning, and preventing locals from helping the embassy process Chinese visas.
- China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rebutted the accusations by accusing the U.S. of harassing Chinese students abroad and offering a China-led cultural exchange fair.
- Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recommended shutting off Chinese students from STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) degrees and limiting them just to the humanities. China’s state media rebuked the U.S. for Campbell’s remarks, saying that this was “akin to a color revolution or peaceful evolution.”
Why It Matters: China is using gray zone tactics on the U.S. embassy and preventing them from conducting diplomacy while accusing the U.S. of doing the same. This is a means to make diplomacy a one-way exchange, giving China greater influence over American society without potentially opening themselves up to liberal ideas. – J.V.
- Global Rollup
- Taiwan’s annual exercise will take place from 22 to 26 July. For the first time, the new decentralized command structure will be used to practice blockade-breaking at night and during the day. Due to national security concerns, the exercise will also have minimal media exposure for the first time. Taiwan’s military says this is explicitly in preparation for war with China.
- China is boasting about broad public support for a new law that would allow them to sentence Taiwanese independence activists to death without them being present for the trial. (China is infamous for enforcing its own laws on Chinese abroad and will undoubtedly do the same here. China also has numerous extradition treaties around Asia that could potentially thwart any Taiwanese attempts to flee. – J.V.)
- Denmark is planning to impose a livestock carbon tax beginning in 2030, and the Danish government said it hopes the move will inspire other countries to impose their own livestock carbon taxes. (This livestock carbon tax is likely to increase unrest and demonstrations by Danish farmers, who say it could cut livestock production by up to 15%. Production cuts will also hit exports, most likely to areas with low food security in Africa and the Middle East, creating greater immigration pressures. – R.C.)
- OpenAI announced that it will end Chinese AI companies’ access to OpenAI’s development software and tools in July, and major Chinese tech companies are now moving to provide their own AI tools to Chinese startups. Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai has said it would take at least two years for homegrown AI models to match US ones.
THAT’S A WRAP: This does it for today’s edition. Thank you for reading. If you know folks who would also like to receive this email, would you please forward it to them? We appreciate you spreading the word. – M.S.