Is state breakdown on the American horizon?

Good morning and happy Friday. Here’s what’s on my radar this morning…

Is state breakdown on the American horizon?

I ask earnestly because we know the early warning indicators.

State breakdown is when a government loses the capacity, authority, and/or legitimacy to govern, typically due to an internal crisis (or many crises).

There’s one major early warning indicator and, of all places, Politico inadvertently identified it this morning in an article about Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH).

But first, some background.

The strongest early warning indicator of state breakdown is factionalism among elites.

You tend to get armed conflicts like revolution (state breakdown) when the elite class fractures into elites and counter-elites.

They go to war with each other.

We see this in the lead up to the English Civil War, the French Revolution, the Ottoman Crisis, the Ming collapse, and later the Taiping Rebellion in China.

That’s the guideline of history.

And the fracturing of American elites has been ongoing since 2016.

Back to Politico, here’s how they described the “New Right” — the cohort of younger, America First (and adjacent) batch of Republicans:

Senators J.D. Vance, Josh Hawley (R-MO), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Tom Cotton (R-AR) — “all of whom… have transformed themselves from college-educated elites into self-styled critics of America’s ruling class.”

Whether they realize it or not, Politico just described exactly what’s happening.

We’re still on the front edge of this counter-elite development, so it may be difficult to see at first, but it’s happening.

And this is partly because since 2008, elections are no longer about who gets to set policy for the next four years, but who gets to reshape the country entirely (a fundamental transformation, if you will), as we’re seeing now.

This is why every four years feels like a “do or die” election.

Eventually, it will be one because the risk is too great to allow the other side to win and take power from you. (Could be the 2024 election.)

I’ll tell you my greatest fear.

This is an open secret at this point.

Democrats have known this since 2008.

The United States is in a foot race to authoritarianism.

The progressive expansion of federal authority ends one of two ways: one party-rule or a domestic conflict. Maybe both.

And this is probably why demographer Neil Howe (The Fourth Turning) expects an internal conflict (literally a civil war) in the United States later this decade.

According to his latest book, he expects the Fourth Turning (the conflict cycle of generational cycle theory) to peak around 2030.

So if you’ve also been piecing this altogether, then congratulations. You’re way ahead of the curve.

Unfortunately, you’re at the whim of history.

Until next time, be well and stay out front.

Always Out Front,

Mike Shelby

P.S. – If you still need to finish your Area Study before the next disaster, join a free training session I’m holding next week –> https://areaintelligence.com

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